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New York Times KPI on Kalshi
If The New York Times Company reports above 15100000 total subscribers in Q1 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Fiscal.ai.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 14 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
99% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 51¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.72 | 52.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will The New York Times Company report above 14.8 million total subscribers in Q4 2026? · Above 14.8 million | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 742 | Jun 27, 12:00 UTC |
| Will The New York Times Company report above 14.5 million total subscribers in Q4 2026? · Above 14.5 million | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 200 | Jun 27, 12:00 UTC |
| Will The New York Times Company report above 15.1 million total subscribers in Q1 2027? · Above 15.1 million | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Sep 24, 11:00 UTC |
| Will The New York Times Company report above 14.8 million total subscribers in Q1 2027? · Above 14.8 million | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Sep 24, 11:00 UTC |
| Will The New York Times Company report above 14.7 million total subscribers in Q1 2027? · Above 14.7 million | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Sep 24, 11:00 UTC |
| Will The New York Times Company report above 14.6 million total subscribers in Q1 2027? · Above 14.6 million | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Sep 24, 11:00 UTC |
| Will The New York Times Company report above 14.5 million total subscribers in Q1 2027? · Above 14.5 million | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Sep 24, 11:00 UTC |
| Will The New York Times Company report above 14.4 million total subscribers in Q1 2027? · Above 14.4 million | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Sep 24, 11:00 UTC |
| Will The New York Times Company report above 14.3 million total subscribers in Q1 2027? · Above 14.3 million | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Sep 24, 11:00 UTC |
| Will The New York Times Company report above 14.4 million total subscribers in Q4 2026? · Above 14.4 million | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Jun 27, 12:00 UTC |
| Will The New York Times Company report above 14.3 million total subscribers in Q4 2026? · Above 14.3 million | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Jun 27, 12:00 UTC |
| Will The New York Times Company report above 14.2 million total subscribers in Q4 2026? · Above 14.2 million | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Jun 27, 12:00 UTC |
| Will The New York Times Company report above 14.1 million total subscribers in Q4 2026? · Above 14.1 million | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Jun 27, 12:00 UTC |
| Will The New York Times Company report above 14.0 million total subscribers in Q4 2026? · Above 14.0 million | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Jun 27, 12:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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