Markets › Kalshi › Elections
Parties in the next New Zealand government on Kalshi
If a coalition that includes Te Pāti Māori makes up the next elected ruling government of New Zealand before Mar 15, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet, Politico.
Market says (typical open contract)
48%
Median YES price across 7 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
95% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 48¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.82 | 49.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Opportunity be a part of the next government in New Zealand? · Opportunity | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 88% | 1,345 | Mar 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will New Zealand First be a part of the next government in New Zealand? · New Zealand First | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 1,144 | Mar 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Greens be a part of the next government in New Zealand? · Greens | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 73% | 1,127 | Mar 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will National be a part of the next government in New Zealand? · National | 74¢ | 74% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 883 | Mar 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Labour be a part of the next government in New Zealand? · Labour | 27¢ | 27% | 1.4¢ | — | 54% | 736 | Mar 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Te Pāti Māori be a part of the next government in New Zealand? · Te Pāti Māori | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 513 | Mar 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will ACT be a part of the next government in New Zealand? · ACT | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 395 | Mar 15, 14:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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