Markets › Kalshi › Financials
OCCPPI on Kalshi
If the Producer Price Index by Commodity: Pulp, Paper, and Allied Products: Corrugated Recyclable Paper (BLS series WPU09120325; not seasonally adjusted; index June 2006=100) for March 2027 is above 85 index points, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: BLS Corrugated Recyclable Paper PPI (WPU09120325) via FRED.
Market says (typical open contract)
91%
Median YES price across 29 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
18% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
| 91¢ (now) | 0.6¢ | $0.31 | 91.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corrugated paper PPI above 80 for March 2027? · Above 80 | 64¢ | 64% | 1.6¢ | — | 72% | 25,029 | Apr 14, 12:29 UTC |
| Corrugated paper PPI above 80 for November 2026? · Above 80 | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 2,546 | Dec 15, 13:29 UTC |
| Corrugated paper PPI above 70 for November 2026? · Above 70 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 1,503 | Dec 15, 13:29 UTC |
| Corrugated paper PPI above 85 for November 2026? · Above 85 | 84¢ | 84% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 1,429 | Dec 15, 13:29 UTC |
| Corrugated paper PPI above 75 for November 2026? · Above 75 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 1,190 | Dec 15, 13:29 UTC |
| Corrugated paper PPI above 90 for November 2026? · Above 90 | 57¢ | 57% | 1.7¢ | — | 86% | 666 | Dec 15, 13:29 UTC |
| Corrugated paper PPI above 85 for March 2027? · Above 85 | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Apr 14, 12:29 UTC |
| Corrugated paper PPI above 75 for March 2027? · Above 75 | 77¢ | 77% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 0 | Apr 14, 12:29 UTC |
| Corrugated paper PPI above 70 for March 2027? · Above 70 | 86¢ | 86% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 0 | Apr 14, 12:29 UTC |
| Corrugated paper PPI above 65 for March 2027? · Above 65 | 93¢ | 93% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 0 | Apr 14, 12:29 UTC |
| Corrugated paper PPI above 60 for March 2027? · Above 60 | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Apr 14, 12:29 UTC |
| Corrugated paper PPI above 85 for February 2027? · Above 85 | 53¢ | 53% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 0 | Mar 12, 13:29 UTC |
| Corrugated paper PPI above 80 for February 2027? · Above 80 | 69¢ | 69% | 1.5¢ | — | 62% | 0 | Mar 12, 13:29 UTC |
| Corrugated paper PPI above 75 for February 2027? · Above 75 | 82¢ | 82% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 0 | Mar 12, 13:29 UTC |
| Corrugated paper PPI above 70 for February 2027? · Above 70 | 91¢ | 91% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 0 | Mar 12, 13:29 UTC |
| Corrugated paper PPI above 65 for February 2027? · Above 65 | 95¢ | 95% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Mar 12, 13:29 UTC |
| Corrugated paper PPI above 60 for February 2027? · Above 60 | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Mar 12, 13:29 UTC |
| Corrugated paper PPI above 85 for January 2027? · Above 85 | 58¢ | 58% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 0 | Feb 12, 13:29 UTC |
| Corrugated paper PPI above 80 for January 2027? · Above 80 | 76¢ | 76% | 1.3¢ | — | 48% | 0 | Feb 12, 13:29 UTC |
| Corrugated paper PPI above 75 for January 2027? · Above 75 | 89¢ | 89% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 0 | Feb 12, 13:29 UTC |
| Corrugated paper PPI above 70 for January 2027? · Above 70 | 95¢ | 95% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Feb 12, 13:29 UTC |
| Corrugated paper PPI above 65 for January 2027? · Above 65 | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Feb 12, 13:29 UTC |
| Corrugated paper PPI above 60 for January 2027? · Above 60 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Feb 12, 13:29 UTC |
| Corrugated paper PPI above 85 for December 2026? · Above 85 | 69¢ | 69% | 1.5¢ | — | 62% | 0 | Jan 14, 13:29 UTC |
| Corrugated paper PPI above 80 for December 2026? · Above 80 | 87¢ | 87% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 0 | Jan 14, 13:29 UTC |
| Corrugated paper PPI above 75 for December 2026? · Above 75 | 95¢ | 95% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Jan 14, 13:29 UTC |
| Corrugated paper PPI above 70 for December 2026? · Above 70 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Jan 14, 13:29 UTC |
| Corrugated paper PPI above 65 for December 2026? · Above 65 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Jan 14, 13:29 UTC |
| Corrugated paper PPI above 60 for December 2026? · Above 60 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Jan 14, 13:29 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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