Markets › Kalshi › Financials
Okta quarter kpi on Kalshi
If Okta, Inc. reports Above 5400 customers with acv over $100k in Q3 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Fiscal.ai.
Market says (typical open contract)
27%
Median YES price across 5 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
54% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27¢ (now) | 1.4¢ | $2.56 | 28.4% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Okta, Inc. report Above 5375 customers with acv over $100k in Q3 2027? · Above 5375 | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 158 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Okta, Inc. report Above 5400 customers with acv over $100k in Q3 2027? · Above 5400 | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 138 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Okta, Inc. report Above 5300 customers with acv over $100k in Q3 2027? · Above 5300 | 90¢ | 90% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 123 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Okta, Inc. report Above 5350 customers with acv over $100k in Q3 2027? · Above 5350 | 27¢ | 27% | 1.4¢ | — | 54% | 71 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Okta, Inc. report Above 5325 customers with acv over $100k in Q3 2027? · Above 5325 | 62¢ | 62% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 0 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.