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OpenAI on Kalshi

If William Blair serves as a lead underwriter for OpenAI's initial public offering in the United States before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Fox Business, ABC, CNBC, The Wall Street Journal, MSNBC, Financial Times, bank, NBC, company, The New York Times, EDGAR database, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, MarketWatch, Axios, Reuters, CNN, the Associated Press, CBS, Politico, Yahoo Finance, Bloomberg News.

Market says (typical open contract)
13%
Median YES price across 15 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
26% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
13¢ (now)0.8¢$3.0413.8%
30¢1.5¢$2.4531.5%
50¢1.8¢$1.7551.7%
70¢1.5¢$1.0571.5%
90¢0.6¢$0.3590.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
Will Qatalyst Partners take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028? · Qatalyst Partners20¢20%1.1¢—41%2,802Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Stifel Financial take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028? · Stifel Financial40¢40%1.7¢—81%2,642Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Raymond James take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028? · Raymond James38¢38%1.6¢—76%2,579Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Needham & Company take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028? · Needham & Company36¢36%1.6¢—71%1,295Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will William Blair take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028? · William Blair32¢32%1.5¢—65%1,076Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Allen & Company take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028? · Allen & Company26¢26%1.3¢—52%776Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Evercore take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028? · Evercore12¢12%0.7¢—24%168Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Centerview take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028? · Centerview12¢12%0.7¢—24%121Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Lazard take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028? · Lazard12¢12%0.7¢—24%73Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will PJT Partners take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028? · PJT Partners11¢11%0.7¢—22%44Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Rothschild & Co take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028? · Rothschild & Co33¢33%1.5¢—66%41Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Moelis & Company take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028? · Moelis & Company12¢12%0.7¢—24%35Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Piper Sandler take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028? · Piper Sandler13¢13%0.8¢—26%34Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Greenhill & Co take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028? · Greenhill & Co12¢12%0.7¢—24%34Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Perella Weinberg Partners take OpenAI public before Jan 1, 2028? · Perella Weinberg Partners13¢13%0.8¢—26%26Jan 01, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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