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OpenAI lead left IPO on Kalshi
If No Listed Underwriter serves as lead-left underwriter on OpenAI's initial public offering in the United States before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: SEC EDGAR database filings.
Market says (typical open contract)
2%
Median YES price across 6 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
5% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3¢ (now) | 0.2¢ | $3.40 | 3.2% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Goldman Sachs serve as lead-left underwriter on OpenAI's IPO? · Goldman Sachs | 65¢ | 65% | 1.6¢ | — | 70% | 10,629 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Morgan Stanley serve as lead-left underwriter on OpenAI's IPO? · Morgan Stanley | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 55% | 7,428 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will JPMorgan Chase serve as lead-left underwriter on OpenAI's IPO? · JPMorgan Chase | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2,168 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Citigroup serve as lead-left underwriter on OpenAI's IPO? · Citigroup | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2,000 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will No Listed Underwriter serve as lead-left underwriter on OpenAI's IPO? · No Listed Underwriter | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 1,729 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Bank of America serve as lead-left underwriter on OpenAI's IPO? · Bank of America | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,511 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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