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Oscar for Best Adapted Screenplay on Kalshi
If Wildwood has won Best Adapted Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.
Market says (typical open contract)
1%
Median YES price across 15 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
2% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $3.47 | 1.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will The Black Ball win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars? · The Black Ball | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 7,467 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will The Odyssey win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars? · The Odyssey | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 5,798 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will The Invite win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars? · The Invite | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 5,061 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Dune: Part Three win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars? · Dune: Part Three | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 2,399 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Project Hail Mary win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars? · Project Hail Mary | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 2,225 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars? · The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 2,030 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Wildwood win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars? · Wildwood | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 1,688 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Toy Story 5 win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars? · Toy Story 5 | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 1,193 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will The Social Reckoning win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars? · The Social Reckoning | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 1,094 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will All of a Sudden win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars? · All of a Sudden | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 1,048 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will The Whisper Man win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars? · The Whisper Man | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 1,001 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Saturn Return win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars? · Saturn Return | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 1,001 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ink win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars? · Ink | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 1,001 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Cry to Heaven win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars? · Cry to Heaven | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 1,001 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Clarissa win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars? · Clarissa | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 1,001 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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