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Oscar nominations for Best Actor on Kalshi
If Yura Borisov has been nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.
Market says (typical open contract)
4%
Median YES price across 34 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
8% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4¢ (now) | 0.3¢ | $3.36 | 4.3% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? · Tom Cruise | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 79,961 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? · Ryan Gosling | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 67,967 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? · Robert Pattinson | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 52,533 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? · Pedro Pascal | 13¢ | 13% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 44,382 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? · Matt Damon | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 40,197 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? · Jaafar Jackson | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 38,584 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? · Andrew Garfield | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 32,036 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? · Timothée Chalamet | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 31,600 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? · Andrew Scott | 91¢ | 91% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 30,265 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? · Anthony Ippolito | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 20,387 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? · John Malkovich | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 20,300 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? · Sebastian Stan | 18¢ | 18% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 19,298 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? · John Turturro | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 18,356 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? · Jeremy Strong | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 17,443 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? · Adam Driver | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 7,255 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? · Yura Borisov | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 5,399 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? · Mahershala Ali | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 5,258 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? · Brad Pitt | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 4,913 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? · Robert Aramayo | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 4,477 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? · Dominic Sessa | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 3,564 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? · Channing Tatum | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 3,344 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? · Javier Bardem | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 3,314 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? · Sam Rockwell | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 3,196 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? · Adam Scott | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 2,691 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? · Ethan Hawke | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 2,425 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? · Tom Holland | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 2,231 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? · Jeremy Allen White | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 2,212 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? · Josh O'Connor | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 2,068 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? · Keanu Reeves | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 1,894 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? · Charles Melton | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,200 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? · Sacha Baron Cohen | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 513 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? · Robert DeNiro | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 204 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? · Guy Pearce | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 188 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations? · Hanns Zischler | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 110 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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