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Best Adapted Screenplay on Kalshi
If Ink has been nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.
Market says (typical open contract)
18%
Median YES price across 15 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
37% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18¢ (now) | 1.0¢ | $2.87 | 19.0% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations? · Project Hail Mary | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 9,019 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations? · The Invite | 88¢ | 88% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 8,578 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations? · Dune: Part Three | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 6,356 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations? · The Social Reckoning | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 5,819 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations? · The Odyssey | 90¢ | 90% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 4,596 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations? · The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth | 18¢ | 18% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 3,352 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations? · All of a Sudden | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 3,243 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations? · The Black Ball | 88¢ | 88% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 2,997 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations? · Wildwood | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 2,245 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations? · Saturn Return | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 1,950 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations? · Toy Story 5 | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 1,688 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations? · Clarissa | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 1,354 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations? · Ink | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 44% | 918 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations? · Cry to Heaven | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 742 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar nominations? · The Whisper Man | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 326 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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