What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 46¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $1.89.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 48% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 46%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Entertainment

CINEMATOGRAPHY on Kalshi

If The Black Ball / La Bola Negra has been nominated for Best Cinematography at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.

Market says (typical open contract)

46%

Median YES price across 11 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

92% 😈

Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
46¢ (now)	1.7¢	$1.89	47.7%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
2027 Best Cinematography Oscar nominations? · The Whisper Man	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	16%	10,236	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
2027 Best Cinematography Oscar nominations? · Digger	46¢	46%	1.7¢	—	92%	8,441	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
2027 Best Cinematography Oscar nominations? · Project Hail Mary	68¢	68%	1.5¢	—	64%	5,808	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
2027 Best Cinematography Oscar nominations? · 1949 / Fatherland	41¢	41%	1.7¢	—	82%	3,239	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
2027 Best Cinematography Oscar nominations? · Werwulf	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	3,132	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
2027 Best Cinematography Oscar nominations? · Dune: Part Three	84¢	84%	1.0¢	—	33%	2,606	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
2027 Best Cinematography Oscar nominations? · The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth	20¢	20%	1.1¢	—	41%	2,368	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
2027 Best Cinematography Oscar nominations? · Obsession	16¢	16%	1.0¢	—	33%	2,255	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
2027 Best Cinematography Oscar nominations? · The Odyssey	91¢	91%	0.6¢	—	18%	1,649	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
2027 Best Cinematography Oscar nominations? · Josephine	9¢	9%	0.6¢	—	18%	595	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
2027 Best Cinematography Oscar nominations? · The Black Ball / La Bola Negra	72¢	72%	1.4¢	—	57%	219	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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