What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 50¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $1.77.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 51% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 50%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Science and Technology

Open source share of spend on Kalshi

If the Open source share of spend for Nov 12, 2026 is above 39.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Vercel AI Gateway Leaderboards.

Market says (typical open contract)

50%

Median YES price across 18 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

99% 😈

Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
49¢ (now)	1.7¢	$1.79	50.7%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Closes
Open source share of spend above 39.5% · Above 39.5%	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	Nov 13, 04:59 UTC
Open source share of spend above 37.9% · Above 37.9%	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	Nov 13, 04:59 UTC
Open source share of spend above 35.7% · Above 35.7%	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	Nov 13, 04:59 UTC
Open source share of spend above 33.6% · Above 33.6%	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	Nov 13, 04:59 UTC
Open source share of spend above 32.0% · Above 32.0%	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	Nov 13, 04:59 UTC
Open source share of spend above 30.4% · Above 30.4%	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	Nov 13, 04:59 UTC
Open source share of spend above 27.0% · Above 27.0%	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	Nov 13, 04:59 UTC
Open source share of spend above 24.8% · Above 24.8%	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	Nov 13, 04:59 UTC
Open source share of spend above 23.0% · Above 23.0%	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	Nov 13, 04:59 UTC
Open source share of spend above 37.9% · Above 37.9%	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	Nov 11, 04:59 UTC
Open source share of spend above 36.0% · Above 36.0%	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	Nov 11, 04:59 UTC
Open source share of spend above 34.8% · Above 34.8%	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	Nov 11, 04:59 UTC
Open source share of spend above 32.7% · Above 32.7%	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	Nov 11, 04:59 UTC
Open source share of spend above 31.3% · Above 31.3%	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	Nov 11, 04:59 UTC
Open source share of spend above 29.2% · Above 29.2%	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	Nov 11, 04:59 UTC
Open source share of spend above 26.1% · Above 26.1%	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	Nov 11, 04:59 UTC
Open source share of spend above 25.1% · Above 25.1%	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	Nov 11, 04:59 UTC
Open source share of spend above 22.0% · Above 22.0%	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	Nov 11, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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