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Overwatch Game on Kalshi
If VARREL wins the OCS Asia Stage 3 2026: VARREL vs. Crazy Raccoon Overwatch match originally scheduled for Nov 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Overwatch, Gamers World.
Market says (typical open contract)
91%
Median YES price across 6 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
18% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
| 91¢ (now) | 0.6¢ | $0.31 | 91.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will ZETA DIVISION win the ENTER FORCE.36 vs. ZETA DIVISION Overwatch match? · ZETA DIVISION | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 276 | Nov 13, 09:45 UTC |
| Will Crazy Raccoon win the VARREL vs. Crazy Raccoon Overwatch match? · Crazy Raccoon | 91¢ | 91% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 256 | Nov 13, 13:15 UTC |
| Will ENTER FORCE.36 win the ENTER FORCE.36 vs. ZETA DIVISION Overwatch match? · ENTER FORCE.36 | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 210 | Nov 13, 09:45 UTC |
| Will MURASH GAMING win the MURASH GAMING vs. Falcons Overwatch match? · MURASH GAMING | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 196 | Nov 13, 11:30 UTC |
| Will Falcons win the MURASH GAMING vs. Falcons Overwatch match? · Falcons | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 105 | Nov 13, 11:30 UTC |
| Will VARREL win the VARREL vs. Crazy Raccoon Overwatch match? · VARREL | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 33 | Nov 13, 13:15 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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