Markets › Kalshi › Economics
Paper price index on Kalshi
If the Producer Price Index by Commodity: Pulp, Paper, and Allied Products: Paper (BLS series WPU0913; not seasonally adjusted; index 1982=100) for November 2026 is above 305, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: BLS.
Market says (typical open contract)
46%
Median YES price across 7 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
92% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 46¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.89 | 47.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the paper price index for November 2026 be above 275? · Above 275 | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 50,863 | Dec 15, 13:29 UTC |
| Will the paper price index for November 2026 be above 305? · Above 305 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 33,900 | Dec 15, 13:29 UTC |
| Will the paper price index for November 2026 be above 285? · Above 285 | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 63% | 25,149 | Dec 15, 13:29 UTC |
| Will the paper price index for November 2026 be above 300? · Above 300 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 24,233 | Dec 15, 13:29 UTC |
| Will the paper price index for November 2026 be above 280? · Above 280 | 90¢ | 90% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 14,678 | Dec 15, 13:29 UTC |
| Will the paper price index for November 2026 be above 295? · Above 295 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 9,130 | Dec 15, 13:29 UTC |
| Will the paper price index for November 2026 be above 290? · Above 290 | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 8,225 | Dec 15, 13:29 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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