Markets › Kalshi › Politics
Trump pardons monthly on Kalshi
If the President pardons, commutes the sentence of, or gives reprieve to between 25 and 99 persons in Nov 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: White House, the Department of Justice, The New York Times.
Market says (typical open contract)
10%
Median YES price across 8 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
19% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10¢ (now) | 0.6¢ | $3.15 | 10.6% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will exactly 0 people be pardoned in Nov 2026? · 0 | 39¢ | 39% | 1.7¢ | — | 78% | 114 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will exactly 1 people be pardoned in Nov 2026? · 1 | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 33 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will above 249 people be pardoned in Nov 2026? · Above 249 | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 1 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will between 25 and 99 people be pardoned in Nov 2026? · 25 to 99 | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 0 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will between 3 and 9 people be pardoned in Nov 2026? · 3 to 9 | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 0 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will exactly 2 people be pardoned in Nov 2026? · 2 | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 0 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will between 100 and 249 people be pardoned in Nov 2026? · 100 to 249 | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 0 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will between 10 and 24 people be pardoned in Nov 2026? · 10 to 24 | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 0 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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