Markets › Kalshi › Economics
Jobs numbers on Kalshi
If the increase in total non-farm payroll employment is above 90000 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report for the month of November 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: BLS.
Market says (typical open contract)
66%
Median YES price across 13 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
67% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 67¢ (now) | 1.5¢ | $1.15 | 68.5% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Makers also pay a smaller fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will above 80000 jobs be added in November 2026? · Above 80,000 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 2,174 | Dec 04, 13:29 UTC |
| Will above 125000 jobs be added in November 2026? · Above 125,000 | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 2,009 | Dec 04, 13:29 UTC |
| Will above 60000 jobs be added in November 2026? · Above 60,000 | 64¢ | 64% | 1.6¢ | — | 71% | 951 | Dec 04, 13:29 UTC |
| Will above -25000 jobs be added in November 2026? · Above -25,000 | 95¢ | 95% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 890 | Dec 04, 13:29 UTC |
| Will above 0 jobs be added in November 2026? · Above 0 | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 836 | Dec 04, 13:29 UTC |
| Will above 50000 jobs be added in November 2026? · Above 50,000 | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 67% | 780 | Dec 04, 13:29 UTC |
| Will above 30000 jobs be added in November 2026? · Above 30,000 | 77¢ | 77% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 756 | Dec 04, 13:29 UTC |
| Will above 100000 jobs be added in November 2026? · Above 100,000 | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 751 | Dec 04, 13:29 UTC |
| Will above 90000 jobs be added in November 2026? · Above 90,000 | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 88% | 745 | Dec 04, 13:29 UTC |
| Will above 10000 jobs be added in November 2026? · Above 10,000 | 82¢ | 82% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 667 | Dec 04, 13:29 UTC |
| Will above 20000 jobs be added in November 2026? · Above 20,000 | 81¢ | 81% | 1.1¢ | — | 38% | 489 | Dec 04, 13:29 UTC |
| Will above 70000 jobs be added in November 2026? · Above 70,000 | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 88% | 314 | Dec 04, 13:29 UTC |
| Will above 40000 jobs be added in November 2026? · Above 40,000 | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 57% | 297 | Dec 04, 13:29 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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