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Peacock TV: Stream TV & Movies app downloads on Kalshi
If the Carbon Arc Peacock TV: Stream TV & Movies app downloads (November 2026) for November 2026 is above 95.5 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Carbon Arc.
Market says (typical open contract)
42%
Median YES price across 8 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
84% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 42¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $2.03 | 43.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Peacock TV: Stream TV & Movies app downloads for November 2026 be above 119 ? · Above 119 | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 1,450 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Peacock TV: Stream TV & Movies app downloads for November 2026 be above 53.5 ? · Above 53.5 | 93¢ | 93% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 1,390 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Peacock TV: Stream TV & Movies app downloads for November 2026 be above 106 ? · Above 106 | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 900 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Peacock TV: Stream TV & Movies app downloads for November 2026 be above 95.5 ? · Above 95.5 | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 650 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Peacock TV: Stream TV & Movies app downloads for November 2026 be above 86 ? · Above 86 | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 0 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Peacock TV: Stream TV & Movies app downloads for November 2026 be above 77.5 ? · Above 77.5 | 57¢ | 57% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 0 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Peacock TV: Stream TV & Movies app downloads for November 2026 be above 68.5 ? · Above 68.5 | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 57% | 0 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Peacock TV: Stream TV & Movies app downloads for November 2026 be above 152.5 ? · Above 152.5 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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