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next player black panther on Kalshi
If Tenoch Huerta performs/ is announced as any role as an actor in Black Panther 3, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: San Francisco Unified School District.
Market says (typical open contract)
58%
Median YES price across 9 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
83% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 58¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.47 | 59.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Angela Bassett perform as any role as an actor in Black Panther 3? · Angela Bassett | 58¢ | 58% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 14 | Aug 31, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Lupita Nyong'o perform as any role as an actor in Black Panther 3? · Lupita Nyong'o | 78¢ | 78% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 11 | Aug 31, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Daniel Kaluuya perform as any role as an actor in Black Panther 3? · Daniel Kaluuya | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 60% | 10 | Aug 31, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Danai Gurira perform as any role as an actor in Black Panther 3? · Danai Gurira | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 60% | 8 | Aug 31, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Anthony Mackie perform as any role as an actor in Black Panther 3? · Anthony Mackie | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 5 | Aug 31, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Sebastian Stan perform as any role as an actor in Black Panther 3? · Sebastian Stan | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 4 | Aug 31, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Danny Ramirez perform as any role as an actor in Black Panther 3? · Danny Ramirez | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 4 | Aug 31, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Tenoch Huerta perform as any role as an actor in Black Panther 3? · Tenoch Huerta | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 64% | 0 | Aug 31, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Dominique Thorne perform as any role as an actor in Black Panther 3? · Dominique Thorne | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 67% | 0 | Aug 31, 14:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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