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Peru Liga 1 on Kalshi
If Universitario de Deportes is the 2026 Liga 1 Peru champion, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, Fox Sports.
Market says (typical open contract)
42%
Median YES price across 18 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
85% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 42¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $2.03 | 43.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Universitario de Deportes win the Liga 1 Peru? · Universitario de Deportes | 58¢ | 58% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 157 | Jan 15, 02:58 UTC |
| Will Alianza Lima win the Liga 1 Peru? · Alianza Lima | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 72% | 97 | Jan 15, 02:58 UTC |
| Will UTC de Cajamarca win the Liga 1 Peru? · UTC de Cajamarca | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 7 | Jan 15, 02:58 UTC |
| Will Sport Boys Association win the Liga 1 Peru? · Sport Boys Association | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 0 | Jan 15, 02:58 UTC |
| Will CD Moquegua win the Liga 1 Peru? · CD Moquegua | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 0 | Jan 15, 02:58 UTC |
| Will FBC Melgar win the Liga 1 Peru? · FBC Melgar | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 0 | Jan 15, 02:58 UTC |
| Will Juan Pablo II College win the Liga 1 Peru? · Juan Pablo II College | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 0 | Jan 15, 02:58 UTC |
| Will Sport Huancayo win the Liga 1 Peru? · Sport Huancayo | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 0 | Jan 15, 02:58 UTC |
| Will Deportivo Garcilaso win the Liga 1 Peru? · Deportivo Garcilaso | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 0 | Jan 15, 02:58 UTC |
| Will Cusco FC win the Liga 1 Peru? · Cusco FC | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 0 | Jan 15, 02:58 UTC |
| Will Sporting Cristal win the Liga 1 Peru? · Sporting Cristal | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 0 | Jan 15, 02:58 UTC |
| Will Comerciantes Unidos win the Liga 1 Peru? · Comerciantes Unidos | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 0 | Jan 15, 02:58 UTC |
| Will CS Cienciano win the Liga 1 Peru? · CS Cienciano | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 0 | Jan 15, 02:58 UTC |
| Will Los Chankas CYC win the Liga 1 Peru? · Los Chankas CYC | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 0 | Jan 15, 02:58 UTC |
| Will FC Cajamarca win the Liga 1 Peru? · FC Cajamarca | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 0 | Jan 15, 02:58 UTC |
| Will Atletico Grau win the Liga 1 Peru? · Atletico Grau | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 0 | Jan 15, 02:58 UTC |
| Will Asociacion Deportiva Tarma win the Liga 1 Peru? · Asociacion Deportiva Tarma | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 0 | Jan 15, 02:58 UTC |
| Will Alianza Atletico win the Liga 1 Peru? · Alianza Atletico | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 0 | Jan 15, 02:58 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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