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PGA Hole in One on Kalshi
If the golfers in the tournament record at least 3 holes-in-one in the Austin Championship presented by Compliance Solutions originally scheduled to start on Nov 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: the Governing League, ESPN.
Market says (typical open contract)
9%
Median YES price across 3 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
18% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9¢ (now) | 0.6¢ | $3.19 | 9.6% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be 3+ holes-in-one at the 2026 Austin Championship presented by Compliance Solutions? · 3+ holes-in-one | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 327 | Nov 26, 00:00 UTC |
| Will there be 2+ holes-in-one at the 2026 Austin Championship presented by Compliance Solutions? · 2+ holes-in-one | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 182 | Nov 26, 00:00 UTC |
| Will there be 1+ holes-in-one at the 2026 Austin Championship presented by Compliance Solutions? · 1+ holes-in-one | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 88% | 5 | Nov 26, 00:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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