Markets › Kalshi › Sports
PGA To Make Cut on Kalshi
If Zecheng Dou has made the cut at the 2026 Austin Championship presented by Compliance Solutions, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: the Governing League, ESPN, Fox Sports.
Market says (typical open contract)
60%
Median YES price across 111 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
79% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 60¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.40 | 61.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kensei Hirata makes the cut · Kensei Hirata | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 44 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Max Homa makes the cut · Max Homa | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 35 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Pierceson Coody makes the cut · Pierceson Coody | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 56% | 33 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Andrew Novak makes the cut · Andrew Novak | 75¢ | 75% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 31 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Max Greyserman makes the cut · Max Greyserman | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 21 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Austin Smotherman makes the cut · Austin Smotherman | 69¢ | 69% | 1.5¢ | — | 62% | 20 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Ben Kohles makes the cut · Ben Kohles | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 56% | 19 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Blades Brown makes the cut · Blades Brown | 78¢ | 78% | 1.2¢ | — | 44% | 18 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Jordan L. Smith makes the cut · Jordan L. Smith | 64¢ | 64% | 1.6¢ | — | 73% | 18 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Jackson Koivun makes the cut · Jackson Koivun | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 17 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Doug Ghim makes the cut · Doug Ghim | 82¢ | 82% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 17 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Zecheng Dou makes the cut · Zecheng Dou | 64¢ | 64% | 1.6¢ | — | 73% | 0 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Zac Blair makes the cut · Zac Blair | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 0 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Zachary Bauchou makes the cut · Zachary Bauchou | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 0 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| William Mouw makes the cut · William Mouw | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 0 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Vince Whaley makes the cut · Vince Whaley | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 0 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Taylor Pendrith makes the cut · Taylor Pendrith | 62¢ | 62% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 0 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Thomas Morrison makes the cut · Thomas Morrison | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Taylor Moore makes the cut · Taylor Moore | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 0 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Takumi Kanaya makes the cut · Takumi Kanaya | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 0 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Tom Hoge makes the cut · Tom Hoge | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Trace Crowe makes the cut · Trace Crowe | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 0 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Sudarshan Yellamaraju makes the cut · Sudarshan Yellamaraju | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 63% | 0 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Sami Valimaki makes the cut · Sami Valimaki | 64¢ | 64% | 1.6¢ | — | 71% | 0 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Sam Stevens makes the cut · Sam Stevens | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 0 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Seamus Power makes the cut · Seamus Power | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 61% | 0 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Stephan Jaeger makes the cut · Stephan Jaeger | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 63% | 0 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen makes the cut · Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 65% | 0 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Rikuya Hoshino makes the cut · Rikuya Hoshino | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 0 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Rasmus Hojgaard makes the cut · Rasmus Hojgaard | 64¢ | 64% | 1.6¢ | — | 73% | 0 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Rico Hoey makes the cut · Rico Hoey | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 61% | 0 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Ricky Castillo makes the cut · Ricky Castillo | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 64% | 0 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Rafael Campos makes the cut · Rafael Campos | 45¢ | 45% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 0 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Patrick Rodgers makes the cut · Patrick Rodgers | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 0 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Pontus Nyholm makes the cut · Pontus Nyholm | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Peter Malnati makes the cut · Peter Malnati | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 0 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Patton Kizzire makes the cut · Patton Kizzire | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Patrick Fishburn makes the cut · Patrick Fishburn | 62¢ | 62% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 0 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Nick Taylor makes the cut · Nick Taylor | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 63% | 0 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Neal Shipley makes the cut · Neal Shipley | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 65% | 0 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 111 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.