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Ryder Cup on Kalshi
If Team USA wins the 2027 Ryder Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: The Wall Street Journal, ESPN, Fox Sports.
Market says (typical open contract)
44%
Median YES price across 3 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
87% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 43¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $2.00 | 44.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Makers also pay a smaller fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Team USA win the Ryder Cup? · Team USA | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 46,441 | Oct 03, 23:00 UTC |
| Will Team USA and Team Europe tie in the Ryder Cup? · Tie | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 17,370 | Oct 03, 23:00 UTC |
| Will Team Europe win the Ryder Cup? · Team Europe | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 13,147 | Oct 03, 23:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.