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PGA Top 20 Finisher on Kalshi
If Zecheng Dou finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Austin Championship presented by Compliance Solutions, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Fox Sports, ESPN, the Governing League.
Market says (typical open contract)
20%
Median YES price across 111 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
41% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21¢ (now) | 1.2¢ | $2.77 | 22.2% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierceson Coody finishes top 20 · Pierceson Coody | 35¢ | 35% | 1.6¢ | — | 70% | 5,219 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Brian Harman finishes top 20 · Brian Harman | 37¢ | 37% | 1.6¢ | — | 74% | 4,146 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Seamus Power finishes top 20 · Seamus Power | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 387 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Adrien Dumont De Chassart finishes top 20 · Adrien Dumont De Chassart | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 345 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Kensei Hirata finishes top 20 · Kensei Hirata | 13¢ | 13% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 237 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Austin Smotherman finishes top 20 · Austin Smotherman | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 236 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Doug Ghim finishes top 20 · Doug Ghim | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 232 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Blades Brown finishes top 20 · Blades Brown | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 192 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Ben Kohles finishes top 20 · Ben Kohles | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 63% | 148 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Andrew Novak finishes top 20 · Andrew Novak | 38¢ | 38% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 83 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Zac Blair finishes top 20 · Zac Blair | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 80 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Nick Dunlap finishes top 20 · Nick Dunlap | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 68 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| David Ford finishes top 20 · David Ford | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 63% | 65 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Jackson Koivun finishes top 20 · Jackson Koivun | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 42 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Max Greyserman finishes top 20 · Max Greyserman | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 32 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Jordan L. Smith finishes top 20 · Jordan L. Smith | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 25 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Christo Lamprecht finishes top 20 · Christo Lamprecht | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 10 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Rikuya Hoshino finishes top 20 · Rikuya Hoshino | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 8 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Peter Malnati finishes top 20 · Peter Malnati | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 5 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Chris Kirk finishes top 20 · Chris Kirk | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 5 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Billy Horschel finishes top 20 · Billy Horschel | 23¢ | 23% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 3 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Zecheng Dou finishes top 20 · Zecheng Dou | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 0 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Zachary Bauchou finishes top 20 · Zachary Bauchou | 35¢ | 35% | 1.6¢ | — | 70% | 0 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| William Mouw finishes top 20 · William Mouw | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 0 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Vince Whaley finishes top 20 · Vince Whaley | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 0 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Taylor Pendrith finishes top 20 · Taylor Pendrith | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 0 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Thomas Morrison finishes top 20 · Thomas Morrison | 16¢ | 16% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 0 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Taylor Moore finishes top 20 · Taylor Moore | 25¢ | 25% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 0 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Takumi Kanaya finishes top 20 · Takumi Kanaya | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 0 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Tom Hoge finishes top 20 · Tom Hoge | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Trace Crowe finishes top 20 · Trace Crowe | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 0 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Sudarshan Yellamaraju finishes top 20 · Sudarshan Yellamaraju | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 0 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Sami Valimaki finishes top 20 · Sami Valimaki | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 48% | 0 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Sam Stevens finishes top 20 · Sam Stevens | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 0 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Stephan Jaeger finishes top 20 · Stephan Jaeger | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 0 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen finishes top 20 · Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 55% | 0 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Rasmus Hojgaard finishes top 20 · Rasmus Hojgaard | 23¢ | 23% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 0 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Rico Hoey finishes top 20 · Rico Hoey | 31¢ | 31% | 1.5¢ | — | 62% | 0 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Ricky Castillo finishes top 20 · Ricky Castillo | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 56% | 0 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Rafael Campos finishes top 20 · Rafael Campos | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 0 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 111 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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