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PGA Top 5 Finisher on Kalshi
If Zecheng Dou finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Austin Championship presented by Compliance Solutions, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Fox Sports, ESPN, the Governing League.
Market says (typical open contract)
6%
Median YES price across 111 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
12% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6¢ (now) | 0.4¢ | $3.29 | 6.4% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Smotherman finishes top 5 · Austin Smotherman | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 108 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Doug Ghim finishes top 5 · Doug Ghim | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 68 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Jackson Koivun finishes top 5 · Jackson Koivun | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 65 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Neal Shipley finishes top 5 · Neal Shipley | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 25 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Marco Penge finishes top 5 · Marco Penge | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 4 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Zecheng Dou finishes top 5 · Zecheng Dou | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 0 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Zac Blair finishes top 5 · Zac Blair | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Zachary Bauchou finishes top 5 · Zachary Bauchou | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 0 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| William Mouw finishes top 5 · William Mouw | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Vince Whaley finishes top 5 · Vince Whaley | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Taylor Pendrith finishes top 5 · Taylor Pendrith | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Thomas Morrison finishes top 5 · Thomas Morrison | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Taylor Moore finishes top 5 · Taylor Moore | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 0 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Takumi Kanaya finishes top 5 · Takumi Kanaya | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Tom Hoge finishes top 5 · Tom Hoge | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 0 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Trace Crowe finishes top 5 · Trace Crowe | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 0 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Sudarshan Yellamaraju finishes top 5 · Sudarshan Yellamaraju | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 0 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Sami Valimaki finishes top 5 · Sami Valimaki | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 0 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Sam Stevens finishes top 5 · Sam Stevens | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 0 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Seamus Power finishes top 5 · Seamus Power | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 0 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Stephan Jaeger finishes top 5 · Stephan Jaeger | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 0 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen finishes top 5 · Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 0 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Rikuya Hoshino finishes top 5 · Rikuya Hoshino | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Rasmus Hojgaard finishes top 5 · Rasmus Hojgaard | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 0 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Rico Hoey finishes top 5 · Rico Hoey | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 0 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Ricky Castillo finishes top 5 · Ricky Castillo | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 0 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Rafael Campos finishes top 5 · Rafael Campos | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Patrick Rodgers finishes top 5 · Patrick Rodgers | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Pontus Nyholm finishes top 5 · Pontus Nyholm | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Peter Malnati finishes top 5 · Peter Malnati | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Patton Kizzire finishes top 5 · Patton Kizzire | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Patrick Fishburn finishes top 5 · Patrick Fishburn | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Pierceson Coody finishes top 5 · Pierceson Coody | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 0 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Nick Taylor finishes top 5 · Nick Taylor | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 0 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Nicholas Lindheim finishes top 5 · Nicholas Lindheim | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 0 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Nick Dunlap finishes top 5 · Nick Dunlap | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Michael Thompson finishes top 5 · Michael Thompson | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 0 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Miles Russell finishes top 5 · Miles Russell | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Marcelo Rozo finishes top 5 · Marcelo Rozo | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 0 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Matthieu Pavon finishes top 5 · Matthieu Pavon | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Dec 13, 00:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 111 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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