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Will CISA issue an Emergency Directive covering the PHP flaws? on Kalshi
If CISA announces the issuance of an Emergency Directive requiring Federal Civilian Executive Branch agencies to act on the PHP vulnerabilities CVE-2026-109618 or CVE-2026-109619 before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, CISA Cybersecurity Directives.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18¢ (now) | 1.0¢ | $2.87 | 19.0% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will CISA issue an Emergency Directive covering the PHP flaws? · Yes | 18¢ | 18% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 3,264 | Dec 01, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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