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Will a court rule NYC's pied-à-terre tax unconstitutional? on Kalshi

If any federal or state court rules that the pied-à-terre surcharge on non-primary residences in New York City, enacted by New York State in May 2026, violates the U.S. Constitution or the New York State Constitution, in whole or in part in a case challenging the constitutionality of that surcharge before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: CourtListener, PACER (Public Access to Court Electronic Records), New York State Unified Court System, the Associated Press, Reuters.

Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 1 open contract, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
99% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
30¢1.5¢$2.4531.5%
49¢ (now)1.7¢$1.7950.7%
50¢1.8¢$1.7551.7%
70¢1.5¢$1.0571.5%
90¢0.6¢$0.3590.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
Will a court rule NYC's pied-à-terre tax unconstitutional? · Before Jan 1, 202850¢50%1.7¢—99%0Jan 01, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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