What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 46¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $1.91.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 47% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 46%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Sports

Next Brand Deal on Kalshi

If Ralph Lauren officially announces a partnership with Ben Shelton after issuance and before May 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: the Securities and Exchange Commission EDGAR database, Fox Sports, ABC, Bleacher Report, CNBC, The Wall Street Journal, MSNBC, The Information, ESPN, NBC, The Washington Post, company, Financial Times, MarketWatch, The New York Times, Axios, Reuters, CNN, the Associated Press, CBS, Politico, Bloomberg News.

Market says (typical open contract)

46%

Median YES price across 6 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

91% 😈

Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
46¢ (now)	1.7¢	$1.89	47.7%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Ben Shelton sign a partnership with New Balance? · New Balance	80¢	80%	1.1¢	—	40%	2,812	May 08, 14:00 UTC
Will Ben Shelton sign a partnership with Adidas? · Adidas	46¢	46%	1.7¢	—	91%	2,152	May 08, 14:00 UTC
Will Ben Shelton sign a partnership with Alo? · Alo	44¢	44%	1.7¢	—	89%	726	May 08, 14:00 UTC
Will Ben Shelton sign a partnership with Ralph Lauren? · Ralph Lauren	46¢	46%	1.7¢	—	91%	627	May 08, 14:00 UTC
Will Ben Shelton sign a partnership with Nike? · Nike	10¢	10%	0.6¢	—	19%	368	May 08, 14:00 UTC
Will Ben Shelton sign a partnership with Lululemon? · Lululemon	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	8%	256	May 08, 14:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.