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General Politics on Kalshi
If Doug Burgum says Venezuela / Venezuelan as part of Daily Caller Live: Permission to Build originally scheduled for November 10, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, The Information, CBS, The Washington Post, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The New York Times, the Associated Press, Politico.
Market says (typical open contract)
40%
Median YES price across 17 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
79% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 40¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $2.10 | 41.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| What will Doug Burgum say during Daily Caller Live: Permission to Build originally scheduled for November 10, 2026? · Oil / Gas / Gasoline | 90¢ | 90% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 3,410 | Nov 24, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Doug Burgum say during Daily Caller Live: Permission to Build originally scheduled for November 10, 2026? · Permit / Permitted / Permitting | 84¢ | 84% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 3,080 | Nov 24, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Doug Burgum say during Daily Caller Live: Permission to Build originally scheduled for November 10, 2026? · Alaska | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 1,991 | Nov 24, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Doug Burgum say during Daily Caller Live: Permission to Build originally scheduled for November 10, 2026? · Event does not qualify | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,250 | Nov 24, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Doug Burgum say during Daily Caller Live: Permission to Build originally scheduled for November 10, 2026? · China / Chinese | 57¢ | 57% | 1.7¢ | — | 86% | 950 | Nov 24, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Doug Burgum say during Daily Caller Live: Permission to Build originally scheduled for November 10, 2026? · AI / Artificial Intelligence | 33¢ | 33% | 1.5¢ | — | 66% | 839 | Nov 24, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Doug Burgum say during Daily Caller Live: Permission to Build originally scheduled for November 10, 2026? · Data Center | 64¢ | 64% | 1.6¢ | — | 72% | 341 | Nov 24, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Doug Burgum say during Daily Caller Live: Permission to Build originally scheduled for November 10, 2026? · Afford / Affordable / Affordability | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 88% | 297 | Nov 24, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Doug Burgum say during Daily Caller Live: Permission to Build originally scheduled for November 10, 2026? · Venezuela / Venezuelan | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 284 | Nov 24, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Doug Burgum say during Daily Caller Live: Permission to Build originally scheduled for November 10, 2026? · Supply Chain | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 276 | Nov 24, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Doug Burgum say during Daily Caller Live: Permission to Build originally scheduled for November 10, 2026? · Mine / Mining | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 88% | 187 | Nov 24, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Doug Burgum say during Daily Caller Live: Permission to Build originally scheduled for November 10, 2026? · Coal | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 127 | Nov 24, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Doug Burgum say during Daily Caller Live: Permission to Build originally scheduled for November 10, 2026? · Lawsuit / Litigation / Lawfare | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 60 | Nov 24, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Doug Burgum say during Daily Caller Live: Permission to Build originally scheduled for November 10, 2026? · California | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 60% | 35 | Nov 24, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Doug Burgum say during Daily Caller Live: Permission to Build originally scheduled for November 10, 2026? · Rancher | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 23 | Nov 24, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Doug Burgum say during Daily Caller Live: Permission to Build originally scheduled for November 10, 2026? · Nuclear | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 23 | Nov 24, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Doug Burgum say during Daily Caller Live: Permission to Build originally scheduled for November 10, 2026? · SMR / Small Modular Reactor | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 23 | Nov 24, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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