What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 20¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $2.82.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 21% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 20%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

Pop change state 10 on Kalshi

If any U.S. state experiences a population decrease of at least 10% between 2025 and 2035, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: the United Nations Population Division, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, the U.S. Census Bureau, The Wall Street Journal, BBC News, the World Bank, The Washington Post, The New York Times, the Associated Press, Reuters, Bloomberg News.

Market says (typical open contract)

20%

Median YES price across 1 open contract, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

39% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
20¢ (now)	1.1¢	$2.80	21.1%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will any U.S. state experience a population decrease of at least 10% between 2025 and 2035? · Between 2025 and 2035?	20¢	20%	1.1¢	—	39%	3,464	Dec 30, 15:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.