Markets › Kalshi › Elections
2028 Presidential matchup on Kalshi
If Mark Kelly (D) and Ron DeSantis (R) are the nominees for the 2028 presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve Board of Governors.
Market says (typical open contract)
1%
Median YES price across 30 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
2% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $3.47 | 1.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gavin Newsom and JD Vance be the 2028 Democratic and Republican presidential nominees? · Gavin Newsom v. JD Vance | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 82,034 | Nov 07, 10:00 UTC |
| Will Gavin Newsom and Marco Rubio be the 2028 Democratic and Republican presidential nominees? · Gavin Newsom v. Marco Rubio | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 50,881 | Nov 07, 10:00 UTC |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and JD Vance be the 2028 Democratic and Republican presidential nominees? · AOC v. JD Vance | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 38,942 | Nov 07, 10:00 UTC |
| Will Kamala Harris and JD Vance be the 2028 Democratic and Republican presidential nominees? · Kamala Harris v. JD Vance | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 33,553 | Nov 07, 10:00 UTC |
| Will Jon Ossoff and JD Vance be the 2028 Democratic and Republican presidential nominees? · Jon Ossoff v. JD Vance | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 30,008 | Nov 07, 10:00 UTC |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Marco Rubio be the 2028 Democratic and Republican presidential nominees? · AOC v. Marco Rubio | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 26,739 | Nov 07, 10:00 UTC |
| Will Jon Ossoff and Marco Rubio be the 2028 Democratic and Republican presidential nominees? · Jon Ossoff v. Marco Rubio | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 25,278 | Nov 07, 10:00 UTC |
| Will Kamala Harris and Marco Rubio be the 2028 Democratic and Republican presidential nominees? · Kamala Harris v. Marco Rubio | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 14,614 | Nov 07, 10:00 UTC |
| Will Andy Beshear and JD Vance be the 2028 Democratic and Republican presidential nominees? · Andy Beshear v. JD Vance | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 11,464 | Nov 07, 10:00 UTC |
| Will Josh Shapiro and Marco Rubio be the 2028 Democratic and Republican presidential nominees? · Josh Shapiro v. Marco Rubio | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 11,326 | Nov 07, 10:00 UTC |
| Will Pete Buttigieg and JD Vance be the 2028 Democratic and Republican presidential nominees? · Pete Buttigieg v. JD Vance | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 10,554 | Nov 07, 10:00 UTC |
| Will Pete Buttigieg and Marco Rubio be the 2028 Democratic and Republican presidential nominees? · Pete Buttigieg v. Marco Rubio | 1¢ | 1% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 10,074 | Nov 07, 10:00 UTC |
| Will James Talarico and JD Vance be the 2028 Democratic and Republican presidential nominees? · James Talarico v. JD Vance | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 10,022 | Nov 07, 10:00 UTC |
| Will Andy Beshear and Marco Rubio be the 2028 Democratic and Republican presidential nominees? · Andy Beshear v. Marco Rubio | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 9,961 | Nov 07, 10:00 UTC |
| Will Josh Shapiro and JD Vance be the 2028 Democratic and Republican presidential nominees? · Josh Shapiro v. JD Vance | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 8,517 | Nov 07, 10:00 UTC |
| Will James Talarico and Marco Rubio be the 2028 Democratic and Republican presidential nominees? · James Talarico v. Marco Rubio | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 3,284 | Nov 07, 10:00 UTC |
| Will Jon Ossoff and Ron DeSantis be the 2028 Democratic and Republican presidential nominees? · Jon Ossoff v. Ron DeSantis | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 1,488 | Nov 07, 10:00 UTC |
| Will Mark Kelly and Marco Rubio be the 2028 Democratic and Republican presidential nominees? · Mark Kelly v. Marco Rubio | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 500 | Nov 07, 10:00 UTC |
| Will Mark Kelly and Ron DeSantis be the 2028 Democratic and Republican presidential nominees? · Mark Kelly v. Ron DeSantis | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 0 | Nov 07, 10:00 UTC |
| Will Mark Kelly and JD Vance be the 2028 Democratic and Republican presidential nominees? · Mark Kelly v. JD Vance | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 0 | Nov 07, 10:00 UTC |
| Will Raphael Warnock and Ron DeSantis be the 2028 Democratic and Republican presidential nominees? · Raphael Warnock v. Ron DeSantis | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 0 | Nov 07, 10:00 UTC |
| Will Raphael Warnock and Marco Rubio be the 2028 Democratic and Republican presidential nominees? · Raphael Warnock v. Marco Rubio | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 0 | Nov 07, 10:00 UTC |
| Will Raphael Warnock and JD Vance be the 2028 Democratic and Republican presidential nominees? · Raphael Warnock v. JD Vance | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 0 | Nov 07, 10:00 UTC |
| Will James Talarico and Ron DeSantis be the 2028 Democratic and Republican presidential nominees? · James Talarico v. Ron DeSantis | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 0 | Nov 07, 10:00 UTC |
| Will Andy Beshear and Ron DeSantis be the 2028 Democratic and Republican presidential nominees? · Andy Beshear v. Ron DeSantis | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 0 | Nov 07, 10:00 UTC |
| Will Pete Buttigieg and Ron DeSantis be the 2028 Democratic and Republican presidential nominees? · Pete Buttigieg v. Ron DeSantis | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 0 | Nov 07, 10:00 UTC |
| Will Kamala Harris and Ron DeSantis be the 2028 Democratic and Republican presidential nominees? · Kamala Harris v. Ron DeSantis | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 0 | Nov 07, 10:00 UTC |
| Will Josh Shapiro and Ron DeSantis be the 2028 Democratic and Republican presidential nominees? · Josh Shapiro v. Ron DeSantis | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 0 | Nov 07, 10:00 UTC |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Ron DeSantis be the 2028 Democratic and Republican presidential nominees? · AOC v. Ron DeSantis | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 0 | Nov 07, 10:00 UTC |
| Will Gavin Newsom and Ron DeSantis be the 2028 Democratic and Republican presidential nominees? · Gavin Newsom v. Ron DeSantis | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 0 | Nov 07, 10:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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