Markets › Kalshi › Elections
Libertarian Primary winner on Kalshi
If Thomas Massie wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Libertarian party, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Republican Party, Democratic Party.
Market says (typical open contract)
4%
Median YES price across 12 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
8% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4¢ (now) | 0.3¢ | $3.36 | 4.3% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Justin Amash be the nominee for the Presidency for the Libertarian party? · Justin Amash | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 2,062 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Dave Smith be the nominee for the Presidency for the Libertarian party? · Dave Smith | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 1,742 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Thomas Massie be the nominee for the Presidency for the Libertarian party? · Thomas Massie | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 61% | 799 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jo Jorgensen be the nominee for the Presidency for the Libertarian party? · Jo Jorgensen | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 789 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Chase Oliver be the nominee for the Presidency for the Libertarian party? · Chase Oliver | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 682 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Spike Cohen be the nominee for the Presidency for the Libertarian party? · Spike Cohen | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 496 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Larry Sharpe be the nominee for the Presidency for the Libertarian party? · Larry Sharpe | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 39 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Michael Rectenwald be the nominee for the Presidency for the Libertarian party? · Michael Rectenwald | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 36 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Lars Mapstead be the nominee for the Presidency for the Libertarian party? · Lars Mapstead | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 9 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Joshua Smith be the nominee for the Presidency for the Libertarian party? · Joshua Smith | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 9 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jacob Hornberger be the nominee for the Presidency for the Libertarian party? · Jacob Hornberger | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 9 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Gary Johnson be the nominee for the Presidency for the Libertarian party? · Gary Johnson | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 9 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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