What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 15¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $2.98.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 16% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 15%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Elections

Who will run for president in 2028? on Kalshi

If Nikki Haley has announced that they will run for President of the United States in 2028 after Issuance and before Nov 7, 2028, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: the New York Times, ABC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, Bloomberg News, The Information, CBS, NBC, The Washington Post, Axios, Fox News, CNN, Politico, MSNBC, the Associated Press, Reuters.

Market says (typical open contract)

15%

Median YES price across 20 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

30% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
15¢ (now)	0.9¢	$2.98	15.9%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announce a run for President of the United States in 2028? · Robert F. Kennedy Jr.	30¢	30%	1.5¢	—	61%	4,644	Nov 07, 15:00 UTC
Will Andrew Yang announce a run for President of the United States in 2028? · Andrew Yang	25¢	25%	1.3¢	—	50%	3,245	Nov 07, 15:00 UTC
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene announce a run for President of the United States in 2028? · Marjorie Taylor Greene	34¢	34%	1.6¢	—	69%	2,587	Nov 07, 15:00 UTC
Will Jon Stewart announce a run for President of the United States in 2028? · Jon Stewart	15¢	15%	0.9¢	—	30%	2,156	Nov 07, 15:00 UTC
Will Mark Cuban announce a run for President of the United States in 2028? · Mark Cuban	16¢	16%	1.0¢	—	33%	1,630	Nov 07, 15:00 UTC
Will Kanye West announce a run for President of the United States in 2028? · Kanye West	34¢	34%	1.6¢	—	67%	931	Nov 07, 15:00 UTC
Will Joe Manchin announce a run for President of the United States in 2028? · Joe Manchin	13¢	13%	0.8¢	—	26%	797	Nov 07, 15:00 UTC
Will Thomas Massie announce a run for President of the United States in 2028? · Thomas Massie	53¢	53%	1.7¢	—	93%	716	Nov 07, 15:00 UTC
Will Nikki Haley announce a run for President of the United States in 2028? · Nikki Haley	32¢	32%	1.5¢	—	64%	600	Nov 07, 15:00 UTC
Will Joe Rogan announce a run for President of the United States in 2028? · Joe Rogan	7¢	7%	0.5¢	—	14%	577	Nov 07, 15:00 UTC
Will Matthew McConaughey announce a run for President of the United States in 2028? · Matthew McConaughey	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	9%	188	Nov 07, 15:00 UTC
Will Tucker Carlson announce a run for President of the United States in 2028? · Tucker Carlson	26¢	26%	1.3¢	—	51%	76	Nov 07, 15:00 UTC
Will DeAndre Way announce a run for President of the United States in 2028? · DeAndre Way	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	11%	1	Nov 07, 15:00 UTC
Will Larry Hogan announce a run for President of the United States in 2028? · Larry Hogan	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	12%	0	Nov 07, 15:00 UTC
Will Jesse Ventura announce a run for President of the United States in 2028? · Jesse Ventura	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	11%	0	Nov 07, 15:00 UTC
Will Jamie Dimon announce a run for President of the United States in 2028? · Jamie Dimon	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	10%	0	Nov 07, 15:00 UTC
Will Justin Amash announce a run for President of the United States in 2028? · Justin Amash	20¢	20%	1.1¢	—	39%	0	Nov 07, 15:00 UTC
Will Howard Schultz announce a run for President of the United States in 2028? · Howard Schultz	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	9%	0	Nov 07, 15:00 UTC
Will Dwayne Johnson announce a run for President of the United States in 2028? · Dwayne Johnson	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	9%	0	Nov 07, 15:00 UTC
Will Aaron Rodgers announce a run for President of the United States in 2028? · Aaron Rodgers	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	9%	0	Nov 07, 15:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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