What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 94¢, about 0¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $0.19.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 95% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 94%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Elections

2028 primary fields with two candidates on each side on Kalshi

If at least two of the listed Democrats and at least two of the listed Republicans announced runs for their party's 2028 presidential nomination after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: The Guardian, ABC, Fox News, South China Morning Post, The Information, The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg News, CBS, NBC, The Washington Post, Axios, CNN, ABC News Australia, Semafor, MSNBC, the Associated Press, CBC, Reuters, Politico, the New York Times, BBC.

Market says (typical open contract)

94%

Median YES price across 8 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

11% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%
95¢ (now)	0.3¢	$0.18	95.3%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that at least two of the listed Democrats and at least two of the listed Republicans announced runs for their party's 2028 presidential nomination before May 1, 2027? · Before May 1, 2027	84¢	84%	1.0¢	—	33%	200	May 01, 03:59 UTC
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that at least two of the listed Democrats and at least two of the listed Republicans announced runs for their party's 2028 presidential nomination before Jan 1, 2028? · Before Jan 1, 2028	96¢	96%	0.3¢	—	8%	0	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that at least two of the listed Democrats and at least two of the listed Republicans announced runs for their party's 2028 presidential nomination before Apr 1, 2028? · Before Apr 1, 2028	96¢	96%	0.2¢	—	7%	0	Apr 01, 03:59 UTC
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that at least two of the listed Democrats and at least two of the listed Republicans announced runs for their party's 2028 presidential nomination before Sep 1, 2027? · Before Sep 1, 2027	94¢	94%	0.4¢	—	11%	0	Sep 01, 03:59 UTC
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that at least two of the listed Democrats and at least two of the listed Republicans announced runs for their party's 2028 presidential nomination before Mar 1, 2027? · Before Mar 1, 2027	63¢	63%	1.6¢	—	74%	0	Mar 01, 04:59 UTC
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that at least two of the listed Democrats and at least two of the listed Republicans announced runs for their party's 2028 presidential nomination before Jul 1, 2027? · Before Jul 1, 2027	91¢	91%	0.6¢	—	18%	0	Jul 01, 03:59 UTC
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that at least two of the listed Democrats and at least two of the listed Republicans announced runs for their party's 2028 presidential nomination before Feb 1, 2027? · Before Feb 1, 2027	41¢	41%	1.7¢	—	82%	0	Feb 01, 04:59 UTC
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that at least two of the listed Democrats and at least two of the listed Republicans announced runs for their party's 2028 presidential nomination before Dec 1, 2027? · Before Dec 1, 2027	96¢	96%	0.3¢	—	9%	0	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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