Markets › Kalshi › Elections
Dominican PRM presidential nominee on Kalshi
If Wellington Arnaud wins the Partido Revolucionario Moderno's nomination for the 2028 Dominican presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Junta Central Electoral, Partido Revolucionario Moderno.
Market says (typical open contract)
4%
Median YES price across 6 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
9% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4¢ (now) | 0.3¢ | $3.36 | 4.3% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Wellington Arnaud win the Partido Revolucionario Moderno's nomination for the 2028 Dominican presidential election? · Wellington Arnaud | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Oct 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Tony Peña Guaba win the Partido Revolucionario Moderno's nomination for the 2028 Dominican presidential election? · Tony Peña Guaba | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Oct 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Raquel Peña win the Partido Revolucionario Moderno's nomination for the 2028 Dominican presidential election? · Raquel Peña | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Oct 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Guido Gómez Mazara win the Partido Revolucionario Moderno's nomination for the 2028 Dominican presidential election? · Guido Gómez Mazara | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Oct 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will David Collado win the Partido Revolucionario Moderno's nomination for the 2028 Dominican presidential election? · David Collado | 62¢ | 62% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 0 | Oct 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Carolina Mejía win the Partido Revolucionario Moderno's nomination for the 2028 Dominican presidential election? · Carolina Mejía | 25¢ | 25% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 0 | Oct 03, 14:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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