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R6 Map Winner on Kalshi
If Geekay Esports wins map 2 in the BLAST R6 Major Osaka 2026: G2 Esports vs. Geekay Esports R6 match originally scheduled for Nov 10, 2026 at 1:30 AM EST, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Gamers World.
Market says (typical open contract)
48%
Median YES price across 8 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
97% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 48¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.82 | 49.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100 Thieves wins map 1 · 100 Thieves | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 227 | Nov 12, 06:30 UTC |
| G2 Esports wins map 1 · G2 Esports | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 61 | Nov 12, 06:30 UTC |
| Geekay Esports wins map 1 · Geekay Esports | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 59 | Nov 12, 06:30 UTC |
| Geekay Esports wins map 2 · Geekay Esports | 58¢ | 58% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 0 | Nov 12, 06:30 UTC |
| G2 Esports wins map 2 · G2 Esports | 39¢ | 39% | 1.7¢ | — | 78% | 0 | Nov 12, 06:30 UTC |
| Fluxo W7M wins map 2 · Fluxo W7M | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 12, 06:30 UTC |
| 100 Thieves wins map 2 · 100 Thieves | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Nov 12, 06:30 UTC |
| Fluxo W7M wins map 1 · Fluxo W7M | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 0 | Nov 12, 06:30 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.