What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 1¢, about 0¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.47.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 1% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 1%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Entertainment

#1 most searched on google on Kalshi

If Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is #1 search on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global - Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global – People in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Google Trends.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 20 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

2% 😈

All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
1¢ (now)	0.1¢	$3.47	1.1%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Donald Trump be the #1 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global – People? · Donald Trump	4¢	4%	0.2¢	—	7%	1,384,641	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Will Erling Haaland be in the 1 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global – People? · Erling Haaland	10¢	10%	0.6¢	—	19%	176,072	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Will Bad Bunny be the #1 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global – People? · Bad Bunny	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	9%	119,323	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Will Elon Musk be the #1 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global – People? · Elon Musk	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	65,799	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Will Taylor Swift be the #1 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global – People? · Taylor Swift	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	52,537	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Will Lionel Messi be in the 1 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global – People? · Lionel Messi	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	51,774	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Will Lindsay Clancy be the #1 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global - Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global – People list? · Lindsay Clancy	34¢	34%	1.6¢	—	69%	40,272	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Will Luigi Mangione be the #1 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global - Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global – People list? · Luigi Mangione	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	20,011	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Will Savannah Guthrie be in the 1 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global – People? · Savannah Guthrie	4¢	4%	0.2¢	—	7%	19,991	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Will Flávio Bolsonaro be the #1 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global - Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global – People list? · Flávio Bolsonaro	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	18,961	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Will Zohran Mamdani be the #1 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global - Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global – People list? · Zohran Mamdani	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	16,057	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Will Timothée Chalamet be the #1 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global – People? · Timothée Chalamet	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	13,584	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Will Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva be the #1 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global - Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global – People list? · Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	11,050	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Will Alysa Liu be the #1 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global - Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global – People list? · Alysa Liu	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	5,478	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the #1 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global – People? · Volodymyr Zelenskyy	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	3,070	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Will Kamala Harris be the #1 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global – People? · Kamala Harris	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	2,829	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Will Vladimir Putin be the #1 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global – People? · Vladimir Putin	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	2,624	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Will Sam Altman be the #1 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global – People? · Sam Altman	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	1,464	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Will Billie Eilish be the #1 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global – People? · Billie Eilish	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	1,132	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Will Joe Biden be the #1 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global – People? · Joe Biden	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	790	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.