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Reddest House district to elect a Democrat on Kalshi
If the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin, in percentage points, among U.S. House districts won by a Democratic candidate is at least 22 at the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Associated Press, Office of the Clerk, U.S. House of Representatives.
Market says (typical open contract)
99%
Median YES price across 8 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
2% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
| 99¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $0.04 | 99.1% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin, in percentage points, among U.S. House districts won by a Democratic candidate be at least 30 at the November 3, 2026 general election? · Trump +30 or more | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 28,647 | Dec 15, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin, in percentage points, among U.S. House districts won by a Democratic candidate be at least 25 at the November 3, 2026 general election? · Trump +25 or more | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 16,035 | Dec 15, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin, in percentage points, among U.S. House districts won by a Democratic candidate be at least 15 at the November 3, 2026 general election? · Trump +15 or more | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 16,009 | Dec 15, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin, in percentage points, among U.S. House districts won by a Democratic candidate be at least 18 at the November 3, 2026 general election? · Trump +18 or more | 99¢ | 99% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 13,661 | Dec 15, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin, in percentage points, among U.S. House districts won by a Democratic candidate be at least 22 at the November 3, 2026 general election? · Trump +22 or more | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 13,037 | Dec 15, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin, in percentage points, among U.S. House districts won by a Democratic candidate be at least 20 at the November 3, 2026 general election? · Trump +20 or more | 79¢ | 79% | 1.2¢ | — | 42% | 9,391 | Dec 15, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin, in percentage points, among U.S. House districts won by a Democratic candidate be at least 10 at the November 3, 2026 general election? · Trump +10 or more | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 8,613 | Dec 15, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin, in percentage points, among U.S. House districts won by a Democratic candidate be at least 5 at the November 3, 2026 general election? · Trump +5 or more | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 3,389 | Dec 15, 14:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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