What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 42¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $2.03.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 44% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 42%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

Redistricting on Kalshi

If the Kansas legislature has adopted new, qualifying congressional district maps after Issuance and before Nov 7, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: geography Secretary of State, any court with jurisdiction over congressional redistricting in geography (including U, legislature of geography.

Market says (typical open contract)

42%

Median YES price across 13 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

84% 😈

Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
42¢ (now)	1.7¢	$2.03	43.7%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
What states will redistrict before the 2028 Congressional elections? · New Jersey	24¢	24%	1.3¢	—	47%	3,206	Nov 07, 04:59 UTC
What states will redistrict before the 2028 Congressional elections? · Colorado	36¢	36%	1.6¢	—	73%	2,512	Nov 07, 04:59 UTC
What states will redistrict before the 2028 Congressional elections? · Maryland	57¢	57%	1.7¢	—	85%	2,222	Nov 07, 04:59 UTC
What states will redistrict before the 2028 Congressional elections? · Minnesota	42¢	42%	1.7¢	—	84%	2,135	Nov 07, 04:59 UTC
What states will redistrict before the 2028 Congressional elections? · Kansas	30¢	30%	1.5¢	—	61%	1,497	Nov 07, 04:59 UTC
What states will redistrict before the 2028 Congressional elections? · Wisconsin	77¢	77%	1.2¢	—	46%	1,442	Nov 07, 04:59 UTC
What states will redistrict before the 2028 Congressional elections? · Oregon	25¢	25%	1.3¢	—	50%	1,321	Nov 07, 04:59 UTC
What states will redistrict before the 2028 Congressional elections? · Washington	28¢	28%	1.4¢	—	55%	771	Nov 07, 04:59 UTC
What states will redistrict before the 2028 Congressional elections? · Pennsylvania	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	362	Nov 07, 04:59 UTC
What states will redistrict before the 2028 Congressional elections? · New York	79¢	79%	1.2¢	—	42%	84	Nov 07, 04:59 UTC
What states will redistrict before the 2028 Congressional elections? · Illinois	76¢	76%	1.3¢	—	47%	73	Nov 07, 04:59 UTC
What states will redistrict before the 2028 Congressional elections? · Indiana	66¢	66%	1.6¢	—	69%	0	Nov 07, 04:59 UTC
What states will redistrict before the 2028 Congressional elections? · Arizona	20¢	20%	1.1¢	—	41%	0	Nov 07, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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