What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 1¢, about 0¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.47.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 1% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 1%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Elections

How many Republican Governors after the midterms? on Kalshi

If the number of governorships controlled by Republicans is at least 28 once all gubernatorial elections scheduled for Nov 3, 2026 (including runoffs) are conclusively called or certified, per the USELECTION contract, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: the statistical agency or entity responsible for the calculation and/or release of <political stat>.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 8 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

2% 😈

All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
1¢ (now)	0.1¢	$3.47	1.1%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will the number of Republican governors be at least 22 once all gubernatorial elections scheduled for Nov 3, 2026 (including runoffs) are conclusively called or certified, per the USELECTION contract? · At least 22	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	18,351	Feb 01, 15:00 UTC
Will the number of Republican governors be at least 21 once all gubernatorial elections scheduled for Nov 3, 2026 (including runoffs) are conclusively called or certified, per the USELECTION contract? · At least 21	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	6%	10,371	Feb 01, 15:00 UTC
Will the number of Republican governors be at least 24 once all gubernatorial elections scheduled for Nov 3, 2026 (including runoffs) are conclusively called or certified, per the USELECTION contract? · At least 24	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	5,226	Feb 01, 15:00 UTC
Will the number of Republican governors be at least 26 once all gubernatorial elections scheduled for Nov 3, 2026 (including runoffs) are conclusively called or certified, per the USELECTION contract? · At least 26	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	4,182	Feb 01, 15:00 UTC
Will the number of Republican governors be at least 23 once all gubernatorial elections scheduled for Nov 3, 2026 (including runoffs) are conclusively called or certified, per the USELECTION contract? · At least 23	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	2,046	Feb 01, 15:00 UTC
Will the number of Republican governors be at least 25 once all gubernatorial elections scheduled for Nov 3, 2026 (including runoffs) are conclusively called or certified, per the USELECTION contract? · At least 25	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	1,376	Feb 01, 15:00 UTC
Will the number of Republican governors be at least 27 once all gubernatorial elections scheduled for Nov 3, 2026 (including runoffs) are conclusively called or certified, per the USELECTION contract? · At least 27	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	563	Feb 01, 15:00 UTC
Will the number of Republican governors be at least 28 once all gubernatorial elections scheduled for Nov 3, 2026 (including runoffs) are conclusively called or certified, per the USELECTION contract? · At least 28	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	458	Feb 01, 15:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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