Markets › Kalshi › Science and Technology
Rocket Lab launch count on Kalshi
If Rocket Lab Corporation has Above 13 launch after June 29, 2026 at 4:00pm ET and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Federal Aviation Administration, Launch Operators.
Market says (typical open contract)
86%
Median YES price across 7 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
28% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 86¢ (now) | 0.8¢ | $0.49 | 86.8% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| How many launches will Rocket Lab Corporation have after June 29, 2026 at 4:00pm ET and before Jan 1, 2027? · Above 13 | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 5,445 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| How many launches will Rocket Lab Corporation have after June 29, 2026 at 4:00pm ET and before Jan 1, 2027? · Above 11 | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 1,805 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| How many launches will Rocket Lab Corporation have after June 29, 2026 at 4:00pm ET and before Jan 1, 2027? · Above 12 | 21¢ | 21% | 1.2¢ | — | 42% | 1,177 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| How many launches will Rocket Lab Corporation have after June 29, 2026 at 4:00pm ET and before Jan 2027? · Above 7 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 1,008 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| How many launches will Rocket Lab Corporation have after June 29, 2026 at 4:00pm ET and before Jan 2027? · Above 8 | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 892 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| How many launches will Rocket Lab Corporation have after June 29, 2026 at 4:00pm ET and before Jan 2027? · Above 10 | 86¢ | 86% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 749 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| How many launches will Rocket Lab Corporation have after June 29, 2026 at 4:00pm ET and before Jan 2027? · Above 9 | 88¢ | 88% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 431 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.