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Rogan guests on Kalshi
If James Fishback goes on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Spotify.
Market says (typical open contract)
6%
Median YES price across 21 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
12% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6¢ (now) | 0.4¢ | $3.29 | 6.4% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will James Fishback go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027? · James Fishback | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 15,289 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Hunter Biden go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027? · Hunter Biden | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 10,786 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Zohran Mamdani go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027? · Zohran Mamdani | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 9,234 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Donald Trump go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027? · Donald Trump | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 5,461 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Vivek Ramaswamy go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027? · Vivek Ramaswamy | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 5,280 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Clavicular go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027? · Clavicular | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 5,166 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Alex Jones go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027? · Alex Jones | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 4,331 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Sam Altman go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027? · Sam Altman | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 4,179 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kanye West go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027? · Kanye West | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 1,696 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Bernie Sanders go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027? · Bernie Sanders | 62¢ | 62% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 1,641 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tulsi Gabbard go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027? · Tulsi Gabbard | 31¢ | 31% | 1.5¢ | — | 62% | 1,542 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will David Sacks go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027? · David Sacks | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 1,449 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Bill Ackman go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027? · Bill Ackman | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 1,215 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jeff Bezos go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027? · Jeff Bezos | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 797 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Barack Obama go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027? · Barack Obama | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 541 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Michael Saylor go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027? · Michael Saylor | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 448 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kamala Harris go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027? · Kamala Harris | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 241 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Taylor Swift go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027? · Taylor Swift | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 225 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Drake go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027? · Drake | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 197 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Joe Biden go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027? · Joe Biden | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 162 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Hillary Clinton go on the Joe Rogan Experience before Jan 1, 2027? · Hillary Clinton | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 8 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.