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WHO WILL HEADLINE COACHELLA? on Kalshi
If Madonna is the Headliner at Coachella 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: official account of <person>, ABC, in hierarchical order, Fox News, Vogue, Rolling Stone, The Source Agencies are, MSNBC, BBC, Reuters, organizers of <event>, media partners of <event>, CNN, Billboard, NBC, the Associated Press, CBS, Variety, The New York Times, Bloomberg News.
Market says (typical open contract)
16%
Median YES price across 116 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
32% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16¢ (now) | 0.9¢ | $2.94 | 16.9% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Olivia Rodrigo be a Headliner at Coachella 2027? · Olivia Rodrigo | 16¢ | 16% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 59,449 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Fred again.. be a Headliner at Coachella 2027? · Fred again.. | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 56,063 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will BTS be a Headliner at Coachella 2027? · BTS | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 45,824 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Drake be a Headliner at Coachella 2027? · Drake | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 43,422 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Dua Lipa be a Headliner at Coachella 2027? · Dua Lipa | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 35,730 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Radiohead be a Headliner at Coachella 2027? · Radiohead | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 24,135 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will SZA be a Headliner at Coachella 2027? · SZA | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 23,062 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Miley Cyrus be a Headliner at Coachella 2027? · Miley Cyrus | 19¢ | 19% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 18,416 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Daft Punk be a Headliner at Coachella 2027? · Daft Punk | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 17,040 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Doechii be a Headliner at Coachella 2027? · Doechii | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 16,658 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Tame Impala be a Headliner at Coachella 2027? · Tame Impala | 90¢ | 90% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 15,886 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will ROSALÍA be a Headliner at Coachella 2027? · ROSALÍA | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 8,433 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Justin Bieber be a Headliner at Coachella 2027? · Justin Bieber | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 6,517 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Charli xcx be a Headliner at Coachella 2027? · Charli xcx | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 6,152 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Tate McRae be a Headliner at Coachella 2027? · Tate McRae | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 5,797 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Rihanna be a Headliner at Coachella 2027? · Rihanna | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 5,550 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will NF be a Headliner at Coachella 2027? · NF | 27¢ | 27% | 1.4¢ | — | 54% | 5,507 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Olivia Dean be a Headliner at Coachella 2027? · Olivia Dean | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 5,443 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Frank Ocean be a Headliner at Coachella 2027? · Frank Ocean | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 5,086 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Polo G be a Headliner at Coachella 2027? · Polo G | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 5,036 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Bruno Mars be a Headliner at Coachella 2027? · Bruno Mars | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 4,841 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Sabrina Carpenter be a Headliner at Coachella 2027? · Sabrina Carpenter | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 4,798 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Justin Timberlake be a Headliner at Coachella 2027? · Justin Timberlake | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 4,174 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Billie Eilish be a Headliner at Coachella 2027? · Billie Eilish | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 4,036 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will The Kid LAROI be a Headliner at Coachella 2027? · The Kid LAROI | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 3,971 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Taylor Swift be a Headliner at Coachella 2027? · Taylor Swift | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 3,958 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Gracie Abrams be a Headliner at Coachella 2027? · Gracie Abrams | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 3,938 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Stray Kids be a Headliner at Coachella 2027? · Stray Kids | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 3,752 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Ella Langley be a Headliner at Coachella 2027? · Ella Langley | 13¢ | 13% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 3,650 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Kodak Black be a Headliner at Coachella 2027? · Kodak Black | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 3,525 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will KAROL G be a Headliner at Coachella 2027? · KAROL G | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 3,508 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Tyga be a Headliner at Coachella 2027? · Tyga | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 3,460 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Benson Boone be a Headliner at Coachella 2027? · Benson Boone | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 3,281 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Offset be a Headliner at Coachella 2027? · Offset | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 3,263 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Kanye West / Ye be a Headliner at Coachella 2027? · Kanye West / Ye | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 3,214 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Camilo be a Headliner at Coachella 2027? · Camilo | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 3,142 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Luke Combs be a Headliner at Coachella 2027? · Luke Combs | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 3,114 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Don Toliver be a Headliner at Coachella 2027? · Don Toliver | 38¢ | 38% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 3,026 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Calvin Harris be a Headliner at Coachella 2027? · Calvin Harris | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 2,996 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
| Will The Marías be a Headliner at Coachella 2027? · The Marías | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 2,947 | Dec 31, 04:59 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 116 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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