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WHO WILL BE PLAYING WHAT IN AVENGERS DOOMSDAY on Kalshi
If Hailee Steinfeld performs / is announced as Kate Bishop in Avengers: Doomsday, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: San Francisco Unified School District.
Market says (typical open contract)
63%
Median YES price across 19 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
74% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 63¢ (now) | 1.6¢ | $1.30 | 64.6% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Tom Holland perform as Spider-Man in Avengers: Doomsday? · Tom Holland as Spider-Man? | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 71% | 229,127 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Mark Ruffalo perform as Hulk in Avengers: Doomsday? · Mark Ruffalo as Hulk? | 78¢ | 78% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 103,733 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tobey Maguire perform as Spider-Man in Avengers: Doomsday? · Tobey Maguire as Spider-Man? | 90¢ | 90% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 100,073 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Iman Vellani perform as Ms. Marvel in Avengers: Doomsday? · Iman Vellani as Ms. Marvel? | 74¢ | 74% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 53,460 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Halle Berry perform as Storm in Avengers: Doomsday? · Halle Berry as Storm? | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 52,910 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Hugh Jackman perform as Wolverine in Avengers: Doomsday? · Hugh Jackman as Wolverine? | 93¢ | 93% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 51,476 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Benedict Cumberbatch perform as Doctor Strange in Avengers: Doomsday? · Benedict Cumberbatch as Doctor Strange? | 88¢ | 88% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 49,671 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Brie Larson perform as Captain Marvel in Avengers: Doomsday? · Brie Larson as Captain Marvel? | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 49,372 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ryan Reynolds perform as Deadpool in Avengers: Doomsday? · Ryan Reynolds as Deadpool? | 91¢ | 91% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 48,202 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jonathan Majors perform as Kang in Avengers: Doomsday? · Jonathan Majors as Kang? | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 47,330 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Hailee Steinfeld perform as Kate Bishop in Avengers: Doomsday? · Hailee Steinfeld as Kate Bishop? | 78¢ | 78% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 34,647 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Gwyneth Paltrow perform as Pepper Potts in Avengers: Doomsday? · Gwyneth Paltrow as Pepper Potts? | 63¢ | 63% | 1.6¢ | — | 74% | 33,472 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jon Favreau perform as Happy Hogan in Avengers: Doomsday? · Jon Favreau as Happy Hogan? | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 32,811 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Andrew Garfield perform as Spider-Man in Avengers: Doomsday? · Andrew Garfield as Spider-Man? | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 48% | 25,952 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Teyonah Parris perform as Monica Rambeau in Avengers: Doomsday? · Teyonah Parris as Monica Rambeau? | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 24,433 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Xochitl Gomez perform as America Chavez in Avengers: Doomsday? · Xochitl Gomez as America Chavez? | 61¢ | 61% | 1.7¢ | — | 78% | 24,083 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Benedict Wong perform as Wong in Avengers: Doomsday? · Benedict Wong as Wong? | 74¢ | 74% | 1.4¢ | — | 53% | 23,186 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Evangeline Lilly perform as the Wasp in Avengers: Doomsday? · Evangeline Lilly as the Wasp? | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 17,141 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Don Cheadle perform as James Rhodes / War Machine in Avengers: Doomsday? · Don Cheadle as James Rhodes / War Machine? | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 15,432 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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