What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 17¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $2.91.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 18% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 17%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

Will Russian diesel be imported into the United States? on Kalshi

If Russian-origin diesel fuel is imported into the United States after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: ABC, The Wall Street Journal, The Guardian, BBC, Bloomberg News, The Information, CBS, South China Morning Post, NBC, The Washington Post, Axios, Fox News, CNN, ABC News Australia, Semafor, Politico, MSNBC, the Associated Press, CBC, Reuters, the New York Times.

Market says (typical open contract)

17%

Median YES price across 2 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

34% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
17¢ (now)	1.0¢	$2.91	18.0%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Russian-origin diesel fuel is imported into the United States before Dec 1, 2026? · Before Dec 1, 2026	11¢	11%	0.7¢	—	22%	22,872	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Russian-origin diesel fuel is imported into the United States before Jan 1, 2027? · Before Jan 1, 2027	17¢	17%	1.0¢	—	34%	10,098	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.