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Sail GP Race on Kalshi
If United States SailGP Team wins the 2026 Dubai Sail Grand Prix, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: The Wall Street Journal, SailGP, ESPN, Fox Sports, AP.
Market says (typical open contract)
7%
Median YES price across 13 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
14% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7¢ (now) | 0.5¢ | $3.25 | 7.5% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Artemis SailGP Team win the 2026 Dubai Sail Grand Prix? · Artemis SailGP Team | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 650 | Dec 05, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Black Foils win the 2026 Dubai Sail Grand Prix? · Black Foils | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 588 | Dec 05, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Los Gallos win the 2026 Dubai Sail Grand Prix? · Los Gallos | 31¢ | 31% | 1.5¢ | — | 62% | 430 | Dec 05, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Switzerland SailGP Team win the 2026 Dubai Sail Grand Prix? · Switzerland SailGP Team | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 120 | Dec 05, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Bonds Flying Roos win the 2026 Dubai Sail Grand Prix? · Bonds Flying Roos | 21¢ | 21% | 1.2¢ | — | 42% | 60 | Dec 05, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Red Bull Italy win the 2026 Dubai Sail Grand Prix? · Red Bull Italy | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 22 | Dec 05, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Rockwool Racing win the 2026 Dubai Sail Grand Prix? · Rockwool Racing | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 1 | Dec 05, 15:00 UTC |
| Will United States SailGP Team win the 2026 Dubai Sail Grand Prix? · United States SailGP Team | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Dec 05, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Germany SailGP Team win the 2026 Dubai Sail Grand Prix? · Germany SailGP Team | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Dec 05, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Emirates GBR win the 2026 Dubai Sail Grand Prix? · Emirates GBR | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 0 | Dec 05, 15:00 UTC |
| Will France SailGP Team win the 2026 Dubai Sail Grand Prix? · France SailGP Team | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Dec 05, 15:00 UTC |
| Will NorthStar Canada win the 2026 Dubai Sail Grand Prix? · NorthStar Canada | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Dec 05, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Mubadala Brazil win the 2026 Dubai Sail Grand Prix? · Mubadala Brazil | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Dec 05, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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