What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 55¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $1.57.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 57% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 55%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Economics

South Africa balance of trade for [month] on Kalshi

If the South Africa balance of trade for October 2026 is above ZAR8.00B, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation, Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index.

Market says (typical open contract)

55%

Median YES price across 10 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

90% 😈

Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
55¢ (now)	1.7¢	$1.57	56.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will South Africa balance of trade for October 2026 be above ZAR0.00B? · Above ZAR0.00B	98¢	98%	0.1¢	—	3%	12	Nov 30, 12:59 UTC
Will South Africa balance of trade for October 2026 be above ZAR8.00B? · Above ZAR8.00B	87¢	87%	0.8¢	—	26%	0	Nov 30, 12:59 UTC
Will South Africa balance of trade for October 2026 be above ZAR4.00B? · Above ZAR4.00B	94¢	94%	0.4¢	—	12%	0	Nov 30, 12:59 UTC
Will South Africa balance of trade for October 2026 be above ZAR36.00B? · Above ZAR36.00B	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	7%	0	Nov 30, 12:59 UTC
Will South Africa balance of trade for October 2026 be above ZAR32.00B? · Above ZAR32.00B	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	10%	0	Nov 30, 12:59 UTC
Will South Africa balance of trade for October 2026 be above ZAR28.00B? · Above ZAR28.00B	9¢	9%	0.6¢	—	18%	0	Nov 30, 12:59 UTC
Will South Africa balance of trade for October 2026 be above ZAR24.00B? · Above ZAR24.00B	19¢	19%	1.1¢	—	38%	0	Nov 30, 12:59 UTC
Will South Africa balance of trade for October 2026 be above ZAR20.00B? · Above ZAR20.00B	35¢	35%	1.6¢	—	70%	0	Nov 30, 12:59 UTC
Will South Africa balance of trade for October 2026 be above ZAR16.00B? · Above ZAR16.00B	55¢	55%	1.7¢	—	90%	0	Nov 30, 12:59 UTC
Will South Africa balance of trade for October 2026 be above ZAR12.00B? · Above ZAR12.00B	73¢	73%	1.4¢	—	54%	0	Nov 30, 12:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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