Markets › Kalshi › Elections
Parties in the next Saxony-Anhalt government on Kalshi
If a coalition that includes SPD make up the next elected ruling government of Saxony-Anhalt before Jan 15, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Staatskanzlei des Landes Sachsen-Anhalt, Landtag von Sachsen-Anhalt.
Market says (typical open contract)
10%
Median YES price across 7 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
21% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10¢ (now) | 0.6¢ | $3.15 | 10.6% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will AfD be a part of the next government in Saxony-Anhalt? · AfD | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 3,275 | Jan 15, 15:00 UTC |
| Will SPD be a part of the next government in Saxony-Anhalt? · SPD | 10¢ | 10% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 2,568 | Jan 15, 15:00 UTC |
| Will BSW be a part of the next government in Saxony-Anhalt? · BSW | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 1,944 | Jan 15, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Die Linke be a part of the next government in Saxony-Anhalt? · Die Linke | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 1,343 | Jan 15, 15:00 UTC |
| Will CDU be a part of the next government in Saxony-Anhalt? · CDU | 13¢ | 13% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 1,271 | Jan 15, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Greens be a part of the next government in Saxony-Anhalt? · Greens | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 1,146 | Jan 15, 15:00 UTC |
| Will FDP be a part of the next government in Saxony-Anhalt? · FDP | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 129 | Jan 15, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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