Markets › Kalshi › Elections
Next Minister-President of Saxony-Anhalt on Kalshi
If Susan Sziborra-Seidlitz wins the Saxony-Anhalt Minister-President election following the 2026 state election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: the official electoral commission, constitutional court, or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction.
Market says (typical open contract)
2%
Median YES price across 5 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
4% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $3.43 | 2.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ulrich Siegmund win the Saxony-Anhalt Minister-President election following the 2026 state election? · Ulrich Siegmund | 69¢ | 69% | 1.5¢ | — | 62% | 10,511 | Oct 06, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Sven Schulze win the Saxony-Anhalt Minister-President election following the 2026 state election? · Sven Schulze | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 5,350 | Oct 06, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Eva von Angern win the Saxony-Anhalt Minister-President election following the 2026 state election? · Eva von Angern | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 2,346 | Oct 06, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Armin Willingmann win the Saxony-Anhalt Minister-President election following the 2026 state election? · Armin Willingmann | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 2,201 | Oct 06, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Susan Sziborra-Seidlitz win the Saxony-Anhalt Minister-President election following the 2026 state election? · Susan Sziborra-Seidlitz | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Oct 06, 14:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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