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Super Bowl on Kalshi
If Washington wins the 2027 Pro Football Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, Fox Sports, AP.
Market says (typical open contract)
2%
Median YES price across 32 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
3% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $3.47 | 1.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Makers also pay a smaller fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Chicago win the 2027 Pro Football Championship? · Chicago | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 15,541,390 | Feb 13, 23:30 UTC |
| Will Los Angeles R win the 2027 Pro Football Championship? · Los Angeles R | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 14,372,055 | Feb 13, 23:30 UTC |
| Will San Francisco win the 2027 Pro Football Championship? · San Francisco | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 13,933,020 | Feb 13, 23:30 UTC |
| Will Dallas win the 2027 Pro Football Championship? · Dallas | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 12,081,113 | Feb 13, 23:30 UTC |
| Will Cincinnati win the 2027 Pro Football Championship? · Cincinnati | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 11,366,713 | Feb 13, 23:30 UTC |
| Will Buffalo win the 2027 Pro Football Championship? · Buffalo | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 11,078,835 | Feb 13, 23:30 UTC |
| Will New York G win the 2027 Pro Football Championship? · New York G | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 10,605,494 | Feb 13, 23:30 UTC |
| Will Houston win the 2027 Pro Football Championship? · Houston | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 10,573,258 | Feb 13, 23:30 UTC |
| Will Seattle win the 2027 Pro Football Championship? · Seattle | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 9,483,929 | Feb 13, 23:30 UTC |
| Will Kansas City win the 2027 Pro Football Championship? · Kansas City | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 9,453,607 | Feb 13, 23:30 UTC |
| Will Las Vegas win the 2027 Pro Football Championship? · Las Vegas | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 9,137,005 | Feb 13, 23:30 UTC |
| Will Denver win the 2027 Pro Football Championship? · Denver | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 8,685,685 | Feb 13, 23:30 UTC |
| Will Green Bay win the 2027 Pro Football Championship? · Green Bay | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 8,665,939 | Feb 13, 23:30 UTC |
| Will Jacksonville win the 2027 Pro Football Championship? · Jacksonville | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 8,640,568 | Feb 13, 23:30 UTC |
| Will Pittsburgh win the 2027 Pro Football Championship? · Pittsburgh | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 8,483,334 | Feb 13, 23:30 UTC |
| Will Minnesota win the 2027 Pro Football Championship? · Minnesota | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 8,308,159 | Feb 13, 23:30 UTC |
| Will Atlanta win the 2027 Pro Football Championship? · Atlanta | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 7,139,919 | Feb 13, 23:30 UTC |
| Will Baltimore win the 2027 Pro Football Championship? · Baltimore | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 6,667,559 | Feb 13, 23:30 UTC |
| Will Philadelphia win the 2027 Pro Football Championship? · Philadelphia | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 6,478,782 | Feb 13, 23:30 UTC |
| Will Carolina win the 2027 Pro Football Championship? · Carolina | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 6,029,719 | Feb 13, 23:30 UTC |
| Will Tampa Bay win the 2027 Pro Football Championship? · Tampa Bay | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 5,922,336 | Feb 13, 23:30 UTC |
| Will New Orleans win the 2027 Pro Football Championship? · New Orleans | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 5,722,956 | Feb 13, 23:30 UTC |
| Will New England win the 2027 Pro Football Championship? · New England | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 5,232,371 | Feb 13, 23:30 UTC |
| Will Detroit win the 2027 Pro Football Championship? · Detroit | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 5,155,995 | Feb 13, 23:30 UTC |
| Will Los Angeles C win the 2027 Pro Football Championship? · Los Angeles C | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 4,516,278 | Feb 13, 23:30 UTC |
| Will Washington win the 2027 Pro Football Championship? · Washington | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 3,990,164 | Feb 13, 23:30 UTC |
| Will Cleveland win the 2027 Pro Football Championship? · Cleveland | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2,158,856 | Feb 13, 23:30 UTC |
| Will Miami win the 2027 Pro Football Championship? · Miami | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,748,886 | Feb 13, 23:30 UTC |
| Will Indianapolis win the 2027 Pro Football Championship? · Indianapolis | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,266,702 | Feb 13, 23:30 UTC |
| Will New York J win the 2027 Pro Football Championship? · New York J | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 709,707 | Feb 13, 23:30 UTC |
| Will Arizona win the 2027 Pro Football Championship? · Arizona | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 652,863 | Feb 13, 23:30 UTC |
| Will Tennessee win the 2027 Pro Football Championship? · Tennessee | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 498,169 | Feb 13, 23:30 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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