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Starbucks KPI on Kalshi
If Starbucks Corporation reports Above 41800 total global stores in Q1 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Fiscal.ai.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 15 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
100% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ (now) | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Starbucks Corporation report Above 7% company comparable transactions growth in Q1 2027? · Above 7% | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 1,240 | May 27, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Starbucks Corporation report Above 41650 total global stores in Q1 2027? · Above 41650 | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 1,232 | May 27, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Starbucks Corporation report Above 41750 total global stores in Q1 2027? · Above 41750 | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 1,105 | May 27, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Starbucks Corporation report Above 41600 total global stores in Q1 2027? · Above 41600 | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 552 | May 27, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Starbucks Corporation report Above 41800 total global stores in Q1 2027? · Above 41800 | 25¢ | 25% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 480 | May 27, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Starbucks Corporation report Above 41500 total global stores in Q1 2027? · Above 41500 | 86¢ | 86% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 474 | May 27, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Starbucks Corporation report Above 41550 total global stores in Q1 2027? · Above 41550 | 75¢ | 75% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 451 | May 27, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Starbucks Corporation report Above 4% company comparable transactions growth in Q1 2027? · Above 4% | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 413 | May 27, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Starbucks Corporation report Above 41450 total global stores in Q1 2027? · Above 41450 | 90¢ | 90% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 401 | May 27, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Starbucks Corporation report Above 5% company comparable transactions growth in Q1 2027? · Above 5% | 18¢ | 18% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 206 | May 27, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Starbucks Corporation report Above 6% company comparable transactions growth in Q1 2027? · Above 6% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 205 | May 27, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Starbucks Corporation report Above 3% company comparable transactions growth in Q1 2027? · Above 3% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 186 | May 27, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Starbucks Corporation report Above 41700 total global stores in Q1 2027? · Above 41700 | 39¢ | 39% | 1.7¢ | — | 78% | 127 | May 27, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Starbucks Corporation report Above 41400 total global stores in Q1 2027? · Above 41400 | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 65 | May 27, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Starbucks Corporation report Above 2% company comparable transactions growth in Q1 2027? · Above 2% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 16 | May 27, 05:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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