What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 50¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $1.73.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 52% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 50%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Companies

Starbucks Annual KPI on Kalshi

If Starbucks Corporation reports Above 341000 headcount in fiscal 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Fiscal.ai.

Market says (typical open contract)

50%

Median YES price across 33 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

99% 😈

Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
51¢ (now)	1.7¢	$1.72	52.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Starbucks Corporation report Above 368 thousand headcount in fiscal 2026? · Above 368 thousand	12¢	12%	0.7¢	—	23%	2,865	Feb 10, 05:00 UTC
Will Starbucks Corporation report Above -4.0% comparable transactions growth in fiscal 2027? · Above -4.0%	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	2,571	Jan 01, 14:00 UTC
Will Starbucks Corporation report Above -3.0% comparable transactions growth in fiscal 2027? · Above -3.0%	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	2,000	Jan 01, 14:00 UTC
Will Starbucks Corporation report Above 377 thousand headcount in fiscal 2026? · Above 377 thousand	12¢	12%	0.7¢	—	23%	1,805	Feb 10, 05:00 UTC
Will Starbucks Corporation report Above 371 thousand headcount in fiscal 2026? · Above 371 thousand	10¢	10%	0.7¢	—	21%	1,765	Feb 10, 05:00 UTC
Will Starbucks Corporation report Above 374 thousand headcount in fiscal 2026? · Above 374 thousand	12¢	12%	0.8¢	—	25%	647	Feb 10, 05:00 UTC
Will Starbucks Corporation report Above 353 thousand headcount in fiscal 2026? · Above 353 thousand	12¢	12%	0.7¢	—	23%	459	Feb 10, 05:00 UTC
Will Starbucks Corporation report Above 5.0% comparable transactions growth in fiscal 2027? · Above 5.0%	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	416	Jan 01, 14:00 UTC
Will Starbucks Corporation report Above 350 thousand headcount in fiscal 2026? · Above 350 thousand	13¢	13%	0.8¢	—	26%	237	Feb 10, 05:00 UTC
Will Starbucks Corporation report Above 4.0% comparable transactions growth in fiscal 2027? · Above 4.0%	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	232	Jan 01, 14:00 UTC
Will Starbucks Corporation report Above 356 thousand headcount in fiscal 2026? · Above 356 thousand	12¢	12%	0.7¢	—	23%	159	Feb 10, 05:00 UTC
Will Starbucks Corporation report Above 386 thousand headcount in fiscal 2026? · Above 386 thousand	49¢	49%	1.7¢	—	98%	84	Feb 10, 05:00 UTC
Will Starbucks Corporation report Above 380 thousand headcount in fiscal 2026? · Above 380 thousand	10¢	10%	0.7¢	—	21%	81	Feb 10, 05:00 UTC
Will Starbucks Corporation report Above 359 thousand headcount in fiscal 2026? · Above 359 thousand	9¢	9%	0.6¢	—	18%	79	Feb 10, 05:00 UTC
Will Starbucks Corporation report Above 362 thousand headcount in fiscal 2026? · Above 362 thousand	10¢	10%	0.6¢	—	19%	42	Feb 10, 05:00 UTC
Will Starbucks Corporation report Above 42,400 total global stores in fiscal 2027? · Above 42,400	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	13	Jan 01, 14:00 UTC
Will Starbucks Corporation report Above 42,600 total global stores in fiscal 2027? · Above 42,600	52¢	52%	1.7¢	—	96%	11	Jan 01, 14:00 UTC
Will Starbucks Corporation report Above 43,000 total global stores in fiscal 2027? · Above 43,000	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	10	Jan 01, 14:00 UTC
Will Starbucks Corporation report Above 43,200 total global stores in fiscal 2027? · Above 43,200	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	6	Jan 01, 14:00 UTC
Will Starbucks Corporation report Above 389 thousand headcount in fiscal 2026? · Above 389 thousand	12¢	12%	0.7¢	—	23%	5	Feb 10, 05:00 UTC
Will Starbucks Corporation report Above 383 thousand headcount in fiscal 2026? · Above 383 thousand	11¢	11%	0.7¢	—	22%	4	Feb 10, 05:00 UTC
Will Starbucks Corporation report Above 341 thousand headcount in fiscal 2026? · Above 341 thousand	55¢	55%	1.7¢	—	91%	0	Feb 10, 05:00 UTC
Will Starbucks Corporation report Above 344 thousand headcount in fiscal 2026? · Above 344 thousand	55¢	55%	1.7¢	—	91%	0	Feb 10, 05:00 UTC
Will Starbucks Corporation report Above 347 thousand headcount in fiscal 2026? · Above 347 thousand	55¢	55%	1.7¢	—	91%	0	Feb 10, 05:00 UTC
Will Starbucks Corporation report Above 42,800 total global stores in fiscal 2027? · Above 42,800	49¢	49%	1.7¢	—	98%	0	Jan 01, 14:00 UTC
Will Starbucks Corporation report Above -2.0% comparable transactions growth in fiscal 2027? · Above -2.0%	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	0	Jan 01, 14:00 UTC
Will Starbucks Corporation report Above -1.0% comparable transactions growth in fiscal 2027? · Above -1.0%	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	0	Jan 01, 14:00 UTC
Will Starbucks Corporation report Above 6.0% comparable transactions growth in fiscal 2027? · Above 6.0%	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	0	Jan 01, 14:00 UTC
Will Starbucks Corporation report Above 3.0% comparable transactions growth in fiscal 2027? · Above 3.0%	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	0	Jan 01, 14:00 UTC
Will Starbucks Corporation report Above 2.0% comparable transactions growth in fiscal 2027? · Above 2.0%	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	0	Jan 01, 14:00 UTC
Will Starbucks Corporation report Above 1.0% comparable transactions growth in fiscal 2027? · Above 1.0%	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	0	Jan 01, 14:00 UTC
Will Starbucks Corporation report Above 0.0% comparable transactions growth in fiscal 2027? · Above 0.0%	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	0	Jan 01, 14:00 UTC
Will Starbucks Corporation report Above 365 thousand headcount in fiscal 2026? · Above 365 thousand	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	17%	0	Feb 10, 05:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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